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Friday, August 28, 2015

May I Please Plan for the Future Now, Grandma Yellen?

The truth of the matter is that normally functioning capital markets, and most specifically the markets that involve lending money for interest, are all about future expectations.  A man loans money to a corporation because he believes the corporation will make enough money in the future to pay back the loan, plus interest.  A man loans money to another man to buy a house because he believes that the borrower is creditworthy enough to pay back the loan over time, plus interest.  A man lends money to a government because he is sick enough to believe that the government he is lending to won’t default on its bonds at some point.
Given this stupidly obvious truth, the fact that Grandma Yellen can’t bring herself to tell us what the hell she is going to do reveals that she does not understand even the banal foundations of normally functioning capital markets.  She is absolutely terrified of the effect her decisions are going to have on the markets, and so she cowardly does nothing while promising to act “when appropriate.”