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Thursday, March 13, 2025

The Numbers Are In; Trump Is Out Of Time - by Karl Denninger

(Time's up, folks! You might serve yourself a strong drink before you read the whole thing - and keep in mind - it's nothing new. The warnings have been given for years......but the numbers are now HERE! No EXCUSES! - CL)

Read full text: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=252960 


This can be done right here, right now, entirely within the Executive between the FBI and DOJ and Congress neither has to pass anything nor can Congress prevent or halt it.

He has to act now -- and so must Congress.

$296 billion in all revenues and $603 billion spent last month; all of which was with President Trump in office.

This, while Speaker Johnson (and Trump) both want to continue this insane level of spending beyond revenues -- more than a 50% deficit last month -- until the end of September.

This is, on an average basis, worse that Joe Biden's last months in office (October - January) as the total across October to present is $1,147 billion -- or, if you prefer to be fair, equally bad since January is typically 1120 payments month and thus usually has a large amount of received corporate taxes, and it did this year as is usually the case.

Note that Social Security, which people will try to lump in, is not the problem.  It takes in a huge amount of tax (and pays out a huge amount); in contrast Health and Human Services spent $145 billion last month which is more than all income tax receipts deposited from individuals and more than 14 TIMES that deposited from corporations and yet the total deposited from Medicare tax was $28 billion -- or just nineteen percent of what was spent.

For rather-obvious reasons you can't cut CMS program benefits by 80%.

But you can cause costs to fall by close to that amount if you go after cost, and the Executive has the means to do that as I've pointed out through using 15 USC Chapter 1 and the two standing Supreme Court decisions backing its applicability to medical, pharmaceutical and health-insurance related businesses, including of course those involved in Medicare Advantage.

Redefining Christianity - Vox Popoli

Read full text:  https://voxday.net/2025/03/13/redefining-christianity/

 
Never forget that Jesus Christ was the original “antisemitic extremist”. They hated Him so much that they paid his disciple to betray him and plotted to murder Him.

Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Second Term Same as the First? - Vox Popoli

(Governing by headlines eventually turns into an 'all hat and no cattle' show - and time's just about up! - CL)

Read full text: 
https://voxday.net/2025/03/12/second-term-same-as-the-first/
 
But it is readily apparent that Trump needs to talk less and deliver more or he’s going to start losing at least some of the goodwill and popular support that he has amassed as a result of his aggressive executive orders.

The Folly Of 'Let The Air Out' - by Karl Denninger

(Da BigQ - does anyone in DC know and understand we have reached CRITICAL MASS? - CL)

There is always some level of grift and fraud in every economy but at a certain point that becomes so attractive in comparison to actually producing goods and services honestly that it expands exponentially and chokes off honest business and entrepreneurship.

If you allow the grift and fraud to continue beyond that point the outcome will be fiscal, economic and social collapse, with each "intervention" to try to stop it producing less benefit for the public at-large, more skewed toward those who control how the intervention happens and each spike higher will be both more-severe and shorter-lived until an effort fails entirely.

History is full of these examples; Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and many others -- and every one of them has ended in disaster.

Our time to choose otherwise is short -- in fact, it may be on the verge of expiration.

We must choose wisely.

Read full text:
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=252956
 

You can't realistically deport ten million or more illegal aliens, but you can make it impossible for them to work or live in the United States because nobody will take the risk of going to prison for 10 years or more to facilitate them doing so -- and thus they'll leave on their own.  You need no new laws for this; the law in question has been on the books since the 1950s and if the government starts enforcing it no American will take the now-realized and real risk of hard felony prison time.  If you do this labor value for American citizens and lawful permanent residents will rise and the cost of housing will fall.  The same is true if we end H-1b Visas; labor value for Americans and lawful permanent residents will rise and the cost of housing will fall!  That's two economic beneficial offsets to what will otherwise be a difficult time and both will occur due to the immutable laws of supply and demand with no outside government influence required.

The entirety of the Federal Deficit problem is found in the medical system -- not "Medicare" or "Medicaid" -- the system itself and its pricing models, all of which are facially illegal under Royal Drug where it was ruled that insurance companies that negotiate prices are not immune from an argument they've monopolized or restrained trade.

What About MEEEE? - by Vox Day - Sigma Game

 Get over yourself. Learn to at least respect the interests of others even if you can’t appreciate them. And above all, never imagine for one second that the intensity of your self-absorption escapes the notice of others.

Read full text:
https://sigmagame.substack.com/p/what-about-meeee?publication_id=2265630&utm_campaign=email-post-title&r=y7h5a&utm_medium=email 

For some reason, presumably their complete lack of empathy, narcissists of both sexes and all SSH ranks appear to believe their comprehensive self-absorption is invisible to others. Even the most harmless and least offensive form, Delta narcissism, is completely obvious once you’ve recognized the pattern.

I always find it amusing when a Delta informs me that he doesn’t care about the overall mission, what anyone else thinks about his job, or anyone else’s responsibilities. I never know what to say, because it’s like someone telling you that water is wet. “Yes, I know you don’t care about anything but your one task at hand, that’s literally what narcissism is.”

Study: Concealed Carriers Stop Active Shooters Better Than Police

 Read full text: https://thefederalist.com/2025/03/11/study-concealed-carriers-do-a-better-job-of-stopping-active-shooters-than-police/

 
We found that concealed carry permit holders stopped 51.5 percent of active shootings, compared to 44.6 percent stopped by police.

A double feature: The French Despite Clear Warning Brought The Camp of the Saints to France and What Should Trump Do? |

(Ask - will Trump be the greatest president ever.....or preside over the collapse of America.....'it's your choice, SIR!' - CL)

To demonstrate to Putin that the US proxy war with Russia, started by Zionist Neoconservatives, is over, Trump should immediately remove all sanctions, not only against Russia but against every country.  This will boost the dollar’s role as the international medium of exchange, save the basis of American power,  and reassure the Kremlin that the Cold War is indeed over.

Trump should get off China’s back. It is not China’s fault that Wall Street  drove American manufacturing jobs offshore to China and to other parts of Asia and Mexico.  This was the greed for profits by lowering labor costs by leaving the American manufacturing working class without remunerative employment and our former manufacturing cities without a tax base. This is what  Wall Street and the corporations did to America. Is it Trump’s role to protect these American adversaries by blaming China? It has never been clear what Trump wants from China.  He should tells us so that we can assess his intention. As China has jurisdiction over a large segment of US manufacturing which is situated in China, it makes little sense to provoke confrontation with China.

It is Wall Street and the greedy self-serving corporate executives and boards who received huge renumeration for offshoring the jobs of the working class.  When the products of the offshored jobs come back to the US to be marketed, they come in as imports.  It is the offshored production of American corporations that is the cause of the trade deficit with China. It is not the fault of China.  Why is Trump picking on the wrong source of the problem?

Read full text:
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2025/03/11/a-double-feature-the-french-despite-clear-warning-brought-the-camp-of-the-saints-to-france-and-what-should-trump-do/ 

If people in the Trump administration are deceiving Trump about this, he had best replace them.

Being great has moral meaning. It does not suffice to be successful in business, to make successful deals, to avoid wars.  To be great you have to stand up for Truth.  You have to stand up for Justice.  You have to stand up for the US Constitution.

Trump has already abandoned the US Constitution. https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2025/03/10/is-president-trump-an-israeli-puppet/

How long before he abandons truth and justice?

The defense of Israel, whose genocidal government has no concern with any gentile or Muslim’s life, is immoral.  Zionist Israelis’ only concern is with Greater Israel, the expansion of Israel’s borders from the Nile to the Euphrates. The borders of Greater Israel were recently expanded by an Israeli government minister to include a large part of Saudi Arabia. Greater Israel is essentially the Middle East.  Iran is in the way.  Thus Israel agitates for US war with Iran.  Israel and Israel’s American puppets pretend it is about Iranian nuclear weapons.

If Trump enables Israel’s agenda, we will know for certain that he represents Israel, not America.  If Trump turns out to be just another Israeli puppet, it will shatter his supporters belief that America can escape the Satanic evil that is engulfing America.

Lord Acton said that “Power corrupts.  And absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Trump has power, but not absolute power.  I notice that he enjoys the power that he has. He enjoyed exercising it over Zelenskiy, and Canada, Mexico, and with his dismissals of Europe, and threats to China and with his use of executive orders.  Trump’s enjoyment of power could cause him to be pushy with Putin and thereby fail to end the West’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.

Trump enjoys being dominant  on the world scene pronouncing dictates to Zelensky, Europe, China and perhaps Putin also. Withdrawal from foreign distractions and focus on the domestic agenda is the solution. Trump should withdraw America from the conflict, and leave it to Putin and Zelinsaky to resolve.  If Israel wants to go to war with Iran, Trump should leave America out of it.  Involvement in conflict and foreign wars will put the domestic agenda on the back burner, and we will lose our chance of renewal. No president can deal with domestic issues when he is involved in external conflict, especially with such powers as Russia, China, and Iran.

Trump’s enjoyment of  being the mover and shaker on the world scene can easily trap him in distractions that result in his  failure to Make America Great Again.  To clear up the mess that America has become is a full time job.  There is no time or energy left to get involved in the troubles of others.

The Fraud Machine IS NOT Vanquished - by Karl Denninger

(So far - it looks like we're diddling when we should be gutting DaFish - so what's new, eh? - CL)

Read full text: 

But the issue isn't "insurance" when you have a problem of this sort: It's cost, and you cannot address cost when you have a cartel operating in a given field.

Said cartel behavior is unlawful and has been for over 100 years; so says 15 USC Chapter 1 and two Supreme Court decisions that indeed it applies (Royal Drug and Maricopa County), both of which are now more than forty years old and were not overridden by Obamacare or any other legislation since.

Problem: Address this, which is responsible for five times escalation in cost, and that all comes out which means 15% of the economy disappears!

Yes, it will be extremely disruptive if that comes out.

But it has to come out or you can't solve the problem with spiraling debt and debt service which will destroy the economy and all asset prices.

That is the problem and I am in no way encouraged that the Trump Administration or Congress has any intent to take it on and solve it and until that happens there is no way to have any sort of sustainable economic base which means all you have left in all asset markets is bubbles.

All bubbles can randomly run into a pin -- without warning.

Bad News Comes in Small Packages - By Jeff Thomas

 Read full text: https://www.lewrockwell.com/2025/03/no_author/bad-news-comes-in-small-packages/ 

The food industry has, for years, gotten by on a retail markup as low as 2% on most items. Also, suppliers are demanding three-day payment turnarounds in order to get by. In addition, the local warehouses that most supermarkets once maintained are largely gone. Supermarkets now rely on semi-weekly deliveries from wholesalers to keep the shelves full. There’s minimal backup supply.

What all this means is that the food industry, from the producers to the wholesalers, to the retailers, has no wiggle room left. At this point, the industry resembles a boxer who has given up and dropped his hands and is just waiting for the knockout punch.

It will come as no surprise to the reader that inflation is increasing due to dramatic government spending. In the last ten years, more currency has been created than in the previous 230 years put together. Dramatic inflation is unavoidable.

If significant inflation were to occur in any given month, food industry profits would be eliminated for the month. This now happens periodically in the industry, but it’s recoverable the following month. (The next shipment is marked up enough to cover inflation, and while the profit for the month in question is never recovered, the industry survives.)

However, if a mere three consecutive months of significant inflation were to occur, we might expect to see the lights going off in supermarkets across the country. Those that are the most heavily in debt would go first. They’d be followed in the following months by others for as long as the inflation trend continued.

If any nation were to lose suppliers and retailers in, say, shoes or washing machines, shortages would occur, and we would simply adjust. Our old shoes would go to the cobbler rather than being thrown out. We’d call the washing machine repairman if we couldn’t go to the appliance store and buy a new one.

But food is different. It’s the one product that must be replaced immediately. We cannot simply postpone our need for food for a period of weeks or months.

A decade ago, when I wrote that food shortages would take place in the coming economic crisis, unsurprisingly, few people took the notion seriously, as the warning had been made so early. But those shortages have now begun. They’re not yet serious, but we’re now seeing the warning signs.

It’s Rescission Time - By David Stockman

(So is Trump serious about fixing our problem? DaJury is out! - CL)

 The politicians who run the GOP on Capitol Hill are about ready to rug-pull Elon Musk and his patron in the Oval Office big time. That is, the so-called “clean CR [continuing resolution]” that Speaker Johnson is apparently cooking up will ratify the entirety of the runaway spending in the last Biden budget, thereby cancelling virtually every single dime that the DOGE operation has purportedly saved.

This awful outlook, of course, is a consequence of the stacked institutional mechanics that Elon Musk is just beginning to grasp.

For example, the appropriations authority for every one of the hundreds, if not thousands, of idiotic foreign aid contracts that DOGE has exposed and cancelled must by law be recycled and respent on another contract. And therefore spent on projects perhaps only slightly less stupid but in any case no less unaffordable.The Great Money Bubble...Stockman, David A.Best Price: $2.23Buy New $8.00(as of 07:46 UTC - Details)

We are referring to the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and the passel of UniParty-appointed Federal district judges waiting to pounce in favor of lawsuits claiming funds are being illegally withheld by the executive.

To be sure, the anti-impoundment provisions of the 1974 Act are inconvenient albeit probably consistent with the black letters of the Constitution that delegate the power of the purse to Congress. But fortunately, there is a pretty creative hack that might be the next best thing to the now proscribed impoundment tool that Richard Nixon overused, thereby triggering the rebuke to presidential discretion embodied in the 1974 Act.

To wit, as Elon Musk apparently discovered earlier this week the Congressional rescission tool is a pretty good workaround to unspend money that has already been appropriated. This method of cutting existing spending authority does require Congressional approval within 45 days, but rescissions are subject to an up-or-down vote and no filibuster in the Senate.

So what the DOGE team needs to do right now is bundle up a massive pile of rescissions and send them to Capitol Hill to be voted upon as a pre-condition to consideration of the next CR.

We think there is enough fraud, waste, and abuse lying around, in fact, that a $300 billion rescission package could be sent to the Hill within the next week, which might well become known as “The Mother of All Rescissions”(MOAR)!

The proposition would be simple. Either pass MOAR or shut down the government when the current CR expires on March 14th. You choose. And keep it closed until the $300 billion of savings are approved by both Houses and signed by President Trump.

Moreover, to add stiffening to backbones on Capitol Hill, a “nay” vote on MOAR should carry an expectation of being primaried in 2026 on the GOP side of the aisle or being targeted for all-out attack on the Dem side among incumbents in districts/states that returned strong Trump majorities in 2024.

With interest expense having crossed the $1 trillion per year mark and rising rapidly, the nation’s fiscal accounts are now on the verge of plunging into a doom loop. That is to say, a cycle of rising Treasury yields, rising interest expense, and accelerating growth of the public debt that feeds back upon itself.......

......Yet here’s the thing: Real median household income only grew by 10% during that eight-year period. So what the DOGE team and their allies in the House Freedom Caucus should be shouting to the rafters is why in the hell should govenrment bureaucracies be getting a raise nearly twice as large as Main Street America has experienced since 2016?

Read full text:
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2025/03/david-stockman/its-rescission-time/
 

With interest expense having crossed the $1 trillion per year mark and rising rapidly, the nation’s fiscal accounts are now on the verge of plunging into a doom loop. That is to say, a cycle of rising Treasury yields, rising interest expense, and accelerating growth of the public debt that feeds back upon itself.

For instance, just since the end of FY 2024 on September 30th, the public debt has risen by nearly $850 billion, which amounts to $5.5 billion of new borrowing per day, including weekends, holidays, and snow days. So if the cycle is not broken soon, it will become beyond repair—especially if the impending tariff wars lead to an economic upheaval, which is entirely likely.

So in summary, here are the elements from which a $300 billion MOAR package could be assembled. It should be cautioned, however, that even something this big would be merely a down payment on the $2 trillion of annual deficit reductions actually needed, and not all of it would reduce cash outlays and borrowing immediately. That’s because, as will be explained in Part 2, some of the rescission amounts are for unobligated appropriations that might otherwise expire unused.

Still, the MOAR would amount to the crossing of the Fiscal Rubicon. If the Trump/DOGE forces can show that Congress can be compelled to walk the plank on real, material spending cuts, the remaining herculean tasks—sweeping reform of entitlement and drastic downsizing of the War Machine—will be far easier to accomplish.