I
don’t follow the western corporate media so I don’t really know how much
coverage this development has received in the West, but in Russia and the
Ukraine the big news is the decision by Russia to begin recognizing official
Novorussian documents such as passports, driver licenses, school and college
diplomas, etc. The Russians were pretty specific in the way the made the
announcement. They said that it was a temporary measure dictated by
humanitarian considerations. They have a point. Until now, the residents of the
Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics had to travel to the Nazi-occupied
Ukraine to try to get their documents. Which, considering how the Ukronazis
consider anybody from the Donbass was not only futile, but sometimes dangerous.
This decision makes perfect sense practically. But, of course, it has a
far-reaching symbolic dimension too. The timing is also crucial: by recognizing
the documents issued by the DNR and LNR authorities, the Russians have de
facto “semi-recognized” the authorities which issued them and that is just
a fairly short step away from recognizing these republics.
Right
now, the Kremlin is vehemently denying any such thoughts. But all the
Kremlin-affiliated commentators are rather blunt about what this really means.
According to them, the message for the junta in Kiev is simple: if you attack
Novorussia or if you officially ditch the Minks agreements we will immediately
recognize these two republics. And, once that happens, it’s over for the
Ukronazis, these republics will be gone just like South Ossetia or Abkhazia. Of
course, nobody will officially recognize the independence of these republics,
but neither will anybody do anything meaningful about it. And, let’s be honest,
the Russian authorities couldn’t care less about what western politicians or
their corporate media have to say: they already heard it all and it’s not like
they could be demonized much futher.
The
next logical move would be to move the Russian border control from the Russian
border to the line of contact. Or not. If the Russians don’t do it, this might
be a sign that they support the official position of the Republics which is
that they want to liberate the totality of the Doentsk and Lugansk regions. By
the way, the Russian Border Guards are elite and highly militarized forces
whose presence on the line of contact would in no way prevent a Novorussian
(counter-)attack against the Ukronazi forces. So the decision about where to
deploy them would have a primarily political dimension and no real military
consequences.
Right
now the Ukronazis have basically gone officially on record in declaring that
they never intended to abide by the terms of the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2
agreements. Here is what Anton Gerashchenko, a special adviser to the Minister
of internal Affairs of Ukraine and a member of the Board of the Ministry of
internal Affairs of Ukraine openly declared on Ukrainian national TV:
(emphasis added).
Let’s
immediately say that the Minsk Agreements were not implemented from the day
there were signed in Febuary 2015. This was a temporary measure on the side of
the Ukraine and, I will be honest, a deliberate deception. Remember that
the first Minsk Agreement was signed following the military disaster near
Ialovaisk when we had no forces to defend the front from Donetsk to Mariupol.
The second Mink Agreement was signed following the treacherous Russian
aggression on Debaltsevo and the formationm of the “Debaltsevo Cauldron”. These
agreements are not international agreements or anything else.
Needless
to say, NOBODY in the West paid any attention to this statement, and why would
they, after all, their line has always been that Russia is not abiding by the
Minsk Agreement, even if Russia is not even a party to them (Russia is only a
witness and guarantor). And if a senior Ukronazi official says otherwise, who
cares?!
This
amazing admission by Gerashchenko is only the latest in a series of steps taken
and statements made by various Ukronazis to the effect that “we are done
negotiating and from now on, we will solve this problem by force”. So far, the
“force” applied has been primarily in the form of a total blockade of the
Donbass which included the prevention of a large amount of vitally needed coal
to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine from the Donbass even though this shipment had
already been paid for. Officially Poroshenko does not condone this blockade,
but in practice he is either unwilling or unable to prevent or stop it. Another
sign that the Independent Banderastan is falling apart.
There
is a strong feeling in Russia that Poroshenko is powerless and that the
Ukronazi crazies are up to no good. Clearly, nobody in the Ukronazis
elites has any intention of actually implementing the Minsk 1 and Minsk 2
agreements. That, by the way, might be a dangerous approach for a number of
reasons:
First,
these agreements were endorsed by the UNSC and every country out there, at
least as far as I know. So Gerashchenko is wrong – the Minsk Agreements are
binding under international law.
Second,
the Ukrainian authorities recently found and released a document showing that
Yanukovich had made an official request for a Russian intervention in the
Ukraine. They wanted to show that he was a traitor. But in the process, they
also showed that the last legitimate president of the Ukraine had made a legal
request for a Russian intervention which might well mean that, at least in
legal terms, any subsequent Russian intervention in the Ukraine would be 100%
legal.
Even
better, Yanukovich is still in Russia. And, from a legal point of view, you
could make the case that he is still the legitimate president of the Ukraine.
If the Yemeni President in exile Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi could ask the Saudis to
intervene in Yemen, why would that no be an option for Poroshenko to ask for
such an intervention in the Ukraine?
Right
now, the Russians are making no such legalistic statements. But you can be sure
that they have already aligned all their ducks in a neat row just in case they
do decide to openly intervene in this civil war.
How
realistic is the possibility of a Russian recognition of the breakaway
republics or an overt Russian intervention in the Ukraine?
I
think that it all depends on what the Ukronazis crazies do. If they really
attack Novorussia I expect the Kremlin to recognize the DNR and LRN. A Russian
intervention? I doubt it, but only because I believe that the DNR/LNR can
handle a Nazi attack. So the only question for me is how long Poroshenko will
stay in power and what the real crazies will do once they overthrow him. Right
now this mostly depends on the US but since the US elites are locked in a
desperate struggle for power, I don’t see the Trump Administration taking any
dramatic decisions anyway, not in the Ukraine, not elsewhere. At least not as
long as there is a question mark as to who is really in charge in the White
House. Everybody is waiting for the outcome of that struggle, including Moscow
and Kiev.
In
the meantime, Trump has been busy giving speeches. Which sounds pretty bad
until you realize that these are good speeches, very good ones even. For one
thing, he still is holding very firmly to the line that the “fake news” (which
in “Trumpese” means CNN & Co. + BBC) are the enemies of the people. The
other good thing is that twice in a row now he has addressed himself directly
to the people. Sounds like nothing, but I think that this is huge because the
Neocons have now nicely boxed Trump in with advisors and aides who range from
the mediocre to bad to outright evil. The firing of Flynn was a self-defeating
disaster for Trump who now is more or less alone, with only one loyal ally
left, Bannon. I am not sure how much Bannon can do or, for that matter, how
long until the Neocons get to him too, but besides Bannon I see nobody loyal to
Trump and his campaign promises. Nobody except those who put him in power of
course, the millions of Americans who voted for him. And that is why Trump is
doing the right thing speaking directly to them: they might well turn out to be
his biggest weapon against the “DC swamp”.
Furthermore,
by beating on the media, especially CNN and the rest of the main US TV
channels, Trump is pushing the US public to turn to other information sources,
including those sympathetic to him, primarily on the Internet. Good move – that
is how he won the first time around and that is how he might win again.
The
Neocons and the US ‘Deep State’ have to carefully weigh the risks of continuing
their vendetta against Trump. Right now, they appear to be preparing to go
after Bannon. But what will they do if Trump, instead of ditching Bannon like
he ditched Flynn, decides to dig in and fight with everything he has got? Then
what? If there is one thing the Neocons and the deep state hate is to have a
powerful light pointed directly at them. They like to play in the dark, away
from an always potentially hostile public eye. If Trump decides to fight back,
really fight back, and if he appeals directly to the people for support, there
is no saying what could happen next.
I
strongly believe that the American general public is deeply frustrated and
angry. Obama’s betrayal of all his campaign promises only made these feelings
worse. But when Obama had just made it to the White House I remember thinking
that if he really tried to take on the War Machine and if he came to the
conclusion that the ‘deep state’ was not going to let him take action or
threaten him he could simply make a public appeal for help and that millions of
Americans would flood the streets of Washington DC in support of “their guy”
against the “bastards in DC”. Obama was a fake. But Trump might not be. What if
the Three Letter Agencies or Congress suddenly tried to, say, impeach Trump and
what if he decided ask for the support of the people – would millions not flood
the streets of DC? I bet you that Florida alone would send more than a million.
Ditto for Texas. And I don’t exactly imagine the cops going out of their way to
stop them. The bottom line is this: in any confrontation between Congress and
Trump most of the people will back Trump. And, if it ever came to that, and for
whatever it is worth, in any confrontation between Trump-haters and
Trump-supporters the latter will easily defeat the former. The “basket of
deplorables” are still, thank God, the majority in this country and they have a
lot more power than the various minorities who backed the Clinton gang.
There
are other, less dramatic but even more likely scenarios to consider. Say
Congress tries to impeach Trump and he appeals to the people and declares that
the “DC swamp” is trying to sabotage the outcome of the elections and impose
its will upon the American people. Governors in states like Florida or Texas,
pushed by their public opinion, might simply decide not to recognize the
legitimacy of what would be an attempted coup by Congress against the Executive
branch of government. Now you tell me – does Congress really have the means to
impose its will against states like Florida or Texas? I don’t mean legally, I
mean practically. Let me put it this way: if the states revolt against the
federal government does the latter have the means to impose its authority? Are
the creation of USNORTHCOM and the statutory exceptions from the Posse Comitatus Act (which
makes it possible to use the National Guard to suppress insurrections, unlawful
obstructions, assemblages, or rebellions) sufficient to guarantee that the “DC
swamp” can impose its will on the rest of the country? I would remind any “DC
swamp” members reading these lines that the KGB special forces refused not
once, but twice, to open fire against the demonstrators in Moscow (in 1991 and
1993) even though they had received a direct order by the President to do just
that. Is there any reason to believe that US cops and soldiers would be more
willing than the KGB special forces to massacre their own people?
Donald
Trump has probably lost most of his power in Washington DC, but that does not
entail that this is the case in the rest of the USA. The Neocons can feel like
the big guy on the block inside the Beltway, but beyond that they are mostly in
“enemy territory” controlled by the “deplorables”, something to keep in mind
before triggering a major crisis.
This
week I got the feeling that Trump was reaching out and directly seeking for the
support to the American people. I think he will get it if needed. If this is
so, then the focus of his Presidency will be less on foreign affairs, where the
US will be mostly paralyzed, than on internal US politics were he still might
make a difference. On Russia the Neocons have basically beaten Trump – he won’t
have the means to engage in any big negotiating with Vladimir Putin. But, at
least, neither will he constantly be trying to make things worse. The more the
US elites fight each other, the less venom they will have left for the rest of
mankind. Thank God for small favors…
I
can only hope that Trump will continue to appeal directly the people and try to
bypass the immense machine which is currently trying to isolate him. Of course,
I would much prefer that Trump take some strong and meaningful action against
the deep state, but I am not holding my breath.
Tonight
I spoke with a friend who knows a great deal more about Trump than I do and he
told me that I have been too quick in judging Trump and that while the Flynn
episode was definitely a setback, the struggle is far from over and that we are
in for a very long war. I hope that my friend is right, but I will only breathe
a sigh of relief if and when I see Trump hitting back and hitting hard. Only
time will tell.
