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Thursday, March 2, 2017

The Future of the European Union? - by Soeren Kern

§  The document does not contemplate a scenario in which the European Union faces collapse, or in which major member states decide to follow the British example and exit the bloc.
§  The European Commission, in a rare instance of candor, admits that European federalism risks "alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities."
§  The Commission does not consider the possibility that in 2025 it may not even exist.
The European Commission has published a document outlining five scenarios for how the European Union could evolve within the next ten years.
The so-called White Paper on the Future of Europe, which will be presented at the Rome Summit on March 25, 2017 to mark the 60th anniversary of the European Union, is intended to be "the starting point for a wider public debate on the future of our continent."
Each of the five scenarios is based on the premise that "the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union." The document does not consider the possibility that the EU could collapse or break apart, or even that the powers of the EU be significantly curtailed. The document states:
"Too often, the discussion on Europe's future has been boiled down to a binary choice between more or less Europe. That approach is misleading and simplistic. The possibilities covered here range from the status quo, to a change of scope and priorities, to a partial or collective leap forward."
Nevertheless, for the European Commission, the powerful administrative arm of the European Union, publicly to even consider alternatives to full-blown European federalism is a testament to the growing power and influence of anti-EU political movements in Europe.