In no particular order: AI - Housing - Energy - Energy Diversity - Data Centers - Food - Fraud - Overextended Valuations......................
Read full text: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=255140
I've long warned of longer-term risks, specifically in places like medical -- and there's an article coming on that, along with some of the "mainstream media" finally noticing. In fact one of the themes on this page for the last 15 years has been precisely that risk which I identified with plenty of time for most people to do something about it in an attempt to not need medical services as they age. Of course nobody can ever be 100% sure of anything but if you need something and can't access it you're in serious trouble and might be in "dead-big" style trouble, so you'd think given 10+ years worth of warning people would generally take care of it if they can.
Nope.
I know plenty of people today who are singing "high and happy" songs about their stonk portfolios. If you're retired or nearly-so and its a small part of your net worth, and in addition anything illiquid is not leveraged (e.g. real estate) then its probably ok -- it might upset you if you lose half or more but it won't really make life hard for you.
On the other hand if that's not true -- if you're 70 years old and 100% "all-in", having based your lifestyle on a $2m+ portfolio that has doubled in the last five or so years and you have a bunch of "must spend" items in your personal financial condition that require being able to draw $100k/year out of that, and the market takes a 50% hit, you're hosed -- in 10 years you're entirely out of money.
Oh by the way if you look at a long-term (e.g. 20 year weekly) chart of the S&P 500 even a 50% hit, down to about 3,500 from the high, does NOT violate the long-term trendline up from the 2009 lows.
Its much worse if you're in the Nasdaq; there the long-term trendline is down around 8400 which is a 65% loss from where it stands today.
And again this does not undercut that trendline and bear markets typically do undercut it, and not by a little. In fact it is not unusual for a bear market to undercut that long-term trendline by roughly another 50%.
Of course I do not know this will happen again but there has never been a "permanent bull market" that doesn't have this happen from time to time. Never. And some of those bear markets have gone on for a decade or longer before recovering and during that entire time you may not invade any of the principal or you have permanently lost the compounding that would otherwise occur.
Is Iran the triggering event? I have no idea.
It might be -- and you might also note that MSTR, which a bit more than a year ago traded $543, closed as I am writing this at $138.
That's a 75% loss -- so far.
