UPDATE: I’m not the only one who thinks Israel has badly misplayed its US military card. Larry Johnson thinks the USA will be on the verge of surrender in less than two weeks.
I believe that by March 15, the US and Israel will be pleading — at least privately — for an end to the Iranian missile barrages. The death of Khamenei has removed a moderate from the Iranian chain of command. The agreement that Iranian authorities made on June 25, 2025 to end the missile attacks on Israel had the blessing of the Ayatollah. There were many in the IRGC leadership that opposed that decision, but they obeyed the decision of Khamenei. Now they have been vindicated.
It’s interesting to see how things are going pretty much the way all the critics of the build-up to the Israel First war said it would. Iran takes the hit, then utilizes its cheap, older missiles to use up US anti-missile stocks, then gradually starts hammering the targets that can’t be defended anymore.
It’s clear that the Iranians have learned from both Ukraine and the 12-Day War that neither the US military nor those militaries dependent upon it are built for attrition warfare. And every war the Israelis have won was over within days. Every boxer knows that the way you beat someone with punching power is to let himself punch himself out, then take him down.
