Fourth Generation War – Fourth Turning – 4GW- Whadat?

Bad news – it’s BAD – really BAD!

Good news – we can see it coming - if you have a sense of history!

Bad news – those who cause it cannot see it coming – they have no sense at all!

Good news – therefore they are unprepared to deal with the breadth of its consequences.

Bad news – that causes BAD things to happen!

Good news – they will lose not only because they are evil - but incompetent!

And that is the good news!

But first, what is Fourth Generation War – Fourth Turning or 4GW?

Fourth Generation War – a LimbrawLibrary word search

Fourth Turning – ditto

4GW – ditto

(UPDATE 8/28/20 - it looks like Blogger word search only provides By Date results now - bummer! I am still trying to get better results by using more explicit and complete phrases. - CL)

All of these are arranged by Relevance and can be flipped to By Date if you wish to do so – last first! The links add up to about a week’s worth of reading – and that is just my rough estimate.

In just the last few days, this subject has come up - The View From Olympus: Spreading Disorder and 4GW – William S. Lind – and - Vox Popoli: Not 4GW... yet

In fact, if you start from this post and scroll backward for the whole month of December, you will see confirmation of what these authors are saying – our government, society, culture, media and politics – and especially waging WAR - is ONE HUGE mission based on LIES!

Who Wants War

Why War? - $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ - “You and him go fight – I sell you guns and bombs!”

WeDaPeople vs. DaSwamp – if you understand the basics here, you will come to see 4GW play out in front of our eyes. Even Da-Impeachment, while a political sideshow, is part of the process – human nature and politics are joined at the hip!

No, we don’t know the day or the hour – but we can clearly see the pattern from history as explained by the authors of 4GW.

Let’s also understand something – I do not expect everyone to read these – only those who have a passion for understanding and perhaps actually establishing their own mentoring circle. Intellectual curiosity is a must at DaLimbrawLibrary – a library of references – designed to be used as the need to know, understand and research comes up!

If you somehow stumbled onto this blog site and are wondering what is going on here

In the meantime, all the signs of DaPerfectStorm are lining up – so be prepared!

Vox Day:

The Deep State is playing an incredibly dangerous game here and has been for some time. The thing is, no matter how it turns out, they are not going to win. Messrs. Van Creveld and Lind seldom see eye to eye politically, so when they are both seeing the same danger on the horizon, it behooves one to pay very close attention.

The 4GW challenge in America - by Vox Day

What many people who were either upset about my observations concerning Dallas or are completely mystified by my assertion of the need for the US police to demilitarize and deescalate fail to grasp is that the current approach of intimidation and overwhelming force is absolutely doomed to failure in the situation in which they find themselves.

While Bill Lind's perspective on the police is, understandably, outdated, it only underlines the vital importance of the police ceasing to act more like occupying military force and less like the traditional Officer Friendly.

Remember, this is the guy who literally wrote the book on USMC tactics, and if we apply his observations, it is eminently clear that the US police are doing nothing more than setting themselves up for defeat in the long term.

From "Understanding Fourth Generation War", 4th Generation War Handbook.

In Fourth Generation warfare, the weak often have more moral power than the strong. One of the first people to employ the power of weakness was Mahatma Gandhi. Gandhi’s insistence on non-violent tactics to defeat the British in India was and continues to be a classic strategy of Fourth Generation war. When the British responded to Indian independence rallies with violence, they immediately lost the moral war.

Operations David and Goliath show a strong military force, with almost no limits on the amount of violence it can apply to a situation, versus a very weak irregular force. The weaker force has the moral high ground because it is so weak. No one likes bullies using their physical superiority in order to win at anything, and unless we are extremely careful in how we apply our physical combat power, we soon come across as a bully, i.e. Goliath.

Most important, we see the central role of de-escalation. In most Fourth Generation situations, our best hope of winning lies not in escalation but in de-escalation (the “Hama model” discussed in the next chapter relies on escalation, but political factors will usually rule this approach out). De-escalation is how police are trained to handle confrontations. From a policeman’s perspective, escalation is almost always undesirable. If a police officer escalates a situation, he may even find himself charged with a crime. This reflects society’s desire for less, not more, violence. Most people in foreign societies share this desire. They will not welcome foreigners who increase the level of violence around them.

For state militaries in Fourth Generation situations, the policeman is a more appropriate model than the soldier. Soldiers are taught that, if they are not achieving the result they want, they should escalate: call in more troops, more firepower, tanks, artillery, and air support. In this respect, men in state-armed forces may find their own training for war against other state-armed forces works against them. They must realize that in Fourth Generation war, escalation almost always works to the advantage of their opponents. We cannot stress this point too strongly. State militaries must develop a “de-escalation mindset,” along with supporting tactics and techniques.

There may be situations where escalation on the tactical level is necessary to obtain de-escalation on the operational and strategic levels. In such situations, state-armed forces may want to have a special unit, analogous to a police SWAT team, that appears quickly, uses the necessary violence, then quickly disappears. This helps the state servicemen with whom local people normally interact to maintain their image as helpful friends.

Proportionality is another requirement if state militaries want to avoid being seen as bullies. Using tanks, airpower, and artillery against lightly armed guerrillas not only injures and kills innocent civilians and destroys civilian property, it also works powerfully at the moral level of war to increase sympathy for the state’s opponents. That, in turn, helps our Fourth Generation enemies gain local and international support, funding and recruits.

De-escalation and proportionality in turn require state-armed forces to be able to empathize with the local people. If they regard the local population with contempt, this contempt will carry over into their actions. Empathy cannot simply be commanded; developing it must be part of training.... Each of these points touches a central characteristic of Fourth Generation war. If we fail to understand even one of them, and act so as to contradict it, we will set ourselves up for defeat.

Remember, for any state military, Fourth Generation wars are easy to lose and very challenging to win. This is true despite the state military’s great superiority over its Fourth Generation opponents at the physical level of war. Indeed, to a significant degree, it is true because of that superiority. In most Fourth Generation wars, state-armed forces end up defeating themselves.

What is very difficult for most people, even those with considerable military experience, to understand is that 4GW is a different type of war and it utilizes very different metrics. As Lind and LtCol Thiele point out, the central dilemma of 4GW is that what works for you on the physical level often works against you at the moral level.

"It is therefore very easy to win all the tactical engagements in a Fourth Generation conflict yet still lose the war." 

The US police are in very much in the same position as a state military occupying a foreign nation. Therefore, 4GW principles and tactics very clearly apply to the situation.

One can summarize the core anti-4GW strategy in a single sentence: Either kill them all or don't killanyone. 

https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-4gw-challenge-in-america.html

Vox Popoli: Not 4GW... yet

William S. Lind explains why the current New World Disorder is a precursor to 4GW across the West rather than the phenomenon itself:

In more and more places, states are failing to maintain order but remain as vehicles of the New Class, the Establishment.  The Establishment runs the state, not to provide security of persons and property for all, but for its own benefit. It uses its control of the state to give itself careers, money (lots of it), power, prestige, etc.  It then employs these to exempt itself from the consequences of state failure, i.e., it lives in gated communities, its kids go to private schools and its jobs don’t get shipped overseas.

One of the interesting characteristics of the new world disorder is that it is coming primarily from the middle class.  The yellow vests are a striking example. But the young people filling the streets of Baghdad and Hong Kong are also often of middle class background.  They are college students or recent college graduates. They are taking to the streets because around the world, the middle class is under ever growing pressure.  College degrees no longer bring good jobs. Pensions and paychecks no longer last to the end of the month. Maintaining even a vestige of a middle class standard of living requires going even deeper into debt.  The state arose to provide security, but it now yields growing insecurity for the middle class.

So far, the disorder appears to be directed against the Establishment that runs the state, not the state itself.  That is why it is not Fourth Generation war. If it proves possible to boot the Establishment out and replace it with governors who serve the middle class instead of themselves, the state is likely to remain.  However, if the Establishment is able to hold on to power despite its failure in governance, then at some point people are likely to start giving up on the state itself. At that point we will be looking at 4GW, and lots of it.

One thing is already clear, however. The Establishment is not going to give up power voluntarily, regardless of how the electorate votes.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/12/not-4gw-yet.html 

The 4GW War in the West - Translation: Kill or be killed!

4GW analysis and review

Instead of reviewing 4th Generation Warfare Handbook, CQW has chosen to apply what he learned from it to the current war with the Islamic State:

The 4GW War in the West

However western governments choose to handle migration, the governments need to look like they are in control of the situation. This certainly hasn’t been the case in Europe.

Flat out refusal, and the repatriation and dispersal of potential enemy elements already in country is the simplest and most likely method to succeed, but the political viability of this remains uncertain for now.

Whatever number of refugees Western governments choose to accept, it needs to be in a distributed, non permanent way. Any migrants need to be spread thin throughout the country. And there has to be a plan for sending them home as the conflict ends.

Preventing and breaking up enclaves is key. If you expect any sort of assimilation, it will only happen outside of ethnic and religious conclaves.

In lieu of trying to integrate refugees into the country or to turn them away, they could simply be sent to a third party. Paying countries to take in and support the refugees is one way to handle things and still look good. You reduce the potential for Paris-style attacks in your own country. You also don’t look like a horrible villain to the bleeding hearts. It works on a tactical and moral level. This of course takes lots of money, but as Lind states, money is one of the state’s most powerful 4th generation assets.

Fighting ISIS in the Middle East

While Lind touches on fighting 4th Generation war in western countries, the main focus of the book is on fighting wars in the Middle East, or wherever non-state actors are likely to come into play.

The first question that has to be asked are what are our goals in fighting ISIS in the Middle East. These are the ones I identify:

• Elimination of ISIS control over state functions over large parts of the Middle East.
• Establishment of peace across Syria and Iraq
• Establishment of stability across Syria and Iraq through state power.

Currently, ISIS wants to operate like a state that uses traditional warfare to accomplish its military goals. When ISIS tries to take an area, it rolls in with force and asserts control. In many ways they function like a 3rd Generation force, because they are highly mobile but lack the communications to have the overarching control of Western army commanders. Of course they lack training and skills to exercise precision and tactical excellence like well-trained Western armies. Their advantage is their adaptability.

Also, make no mistake, ISIS’s plan is likely to fall back into a 4th Generation insurgency model should the West come to occupy the areas now held by ISIS.

Unlike the resort to airstrikes, his plan has the benefit of not being guaranteed to fail. However, given the increasing number of U.S. state governors who are rejecting the Obama administration's demand that they take in more refugees, to say nothing of the total rejection of the Hungarian and Polish governments, I think the refusal-and-repatriation option is much more politically viable than most Western governments want to admit.

It is, in fact, so politically viable that every government that claims it is not is going to be removed from power within the next five years. Even the mainstream media is beginning to understand that.

Isil and its death cult stablemates will never be defeated until we get to grips with the concept that this has nothing to do with anything except the fact that we exist. It is that, and that alone, which offends them and which they seek to destroy.

So, unless we are all happy to sign up to radical Islam right now, with every heretic and infidel executed on sight, every man forced to take up arms, every woman enslaved, every homosexual stoned to death and every nine-year-old girl at risk of rape, in a terrifying return to the Dark Ages, we have a choice to make.

That choice is stark: kill or be killed. So which one is it going to be? 

The single most important thing to understand is that ISIS can't be defeated over there before it is defeated over here. Until the Reconquista 2.0 begins, the Western politicians are doing little more than trying to buy time until retirement.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2015/11/4gw-analysis-and-review.html?m=1

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11998324/Islamists-hate-us-and-their-aim-is-to-kill-us.-We-have-a-choice-kill-or-be-killed.-Which-is-it-to-be.html

The View From Olympus: Spreading Disorder and 4GW – William S. Lind

In the United States, the number of mass shootings continues to climb.  In Lebanon, Iraq, Hong Kong, and Chile, demonstrators fill the streets for weeks or months on end.  In France, that cradle of disorder, the yellow vests have gone quiet for now, but probably not for long.  What is going on? And what, if anything, does it have to do with Fourth Generation war?

To address the latter question, we need to remember that Fourth Generation war is rooted in a crisis of legitimacy of the state.  As people shift their primary loyalty away from the state to a wide variety of other things, the state loses its monopoly on war and on social organization.  And as those monopolies vanish, disorder spreads.

What we are seeing in spreading disorder is not Fourth Generation war itself.  But it is a failure of the state. As Martin van Creveld argues in The Rise and Decline of the State, the state arose for only one purpose: to establish and maintain order and safety of persons and property.  States that cannot do that lose their legitimacy.

Here is where we see an answer to our first question, what is going on?  In more and more places, states are failing to maintain order but remain as vehicles of the New Class, the Establishment.  The Establishment runs the state, not to provide security of persons and property for all, but for its own benefit. It uses its control of the state to give itself careers, money (lots of it), power, prestige, etc.  It then employs these to exempt itself from the consequences of state failure, i.e., it lives in gated communities, its kids go to private schools and its jobs don’t get shipped overseas.

One of the interesting characteristics of the new world disorder is that it is coming primarily from the middle class.  The yellow vests are a striking example. But the young people filling the streets of Baghdad and Hong Kong are also often of middle class background.  They are college students or recent college graduates. They are taking to the streets because around the world, the middle class is under ever growing pressure.  College degrees no longer bring good jobs. Pensions and paychecks no longer last to the end of the month. Maintaining even a vestige of a middle class standard of living requires going even deeper into debt.  The state arose to provide security, but it now yields growing insecurity for the middle class.

So far, the disorder appears to be directed against the Establishment that runs the state, not the state itself.  That is why it is not Fourth Generation war. If it proves possible to boot the Establishment out and replace it with governors who serve the middle class instead of themselves, the state is likely to remain.  However, if the Establishment is able to hold on to power despite its failure in governance, then at some point people are likely to start giving up on the state itself. At that point we will be looking at 4GW, and lots of it.

One of the few benefits of the circus that is the impeachment of President Trump is that it has compelled the Washington Establishment, America’s Deep State, to manifest itself.  The “witnesses” against the President (none of whom seem to have actually witnessed anything) are in highly paid, high prestige jobs. They have had distinguished careers, from the “right schools” on up.  They are all deeply committed to the Globalist world order. And they loathe the President because he is not one of them.

Should the Establishment succeed in driving President Trump from office, one way or another, the message to the people who voted for him will be simple: you don’t count and you never will.  At that point, many of those voters will begin to question the system itself, if they are not doing so already. And that system is the state.

In the end, states cannot remain both legitimate and a private hunting preserve of the New Class.  As Martin van Creveld said to me years ago in my Capitol Hill office, everyone can see it except the people in the capital cities.

Interested in what Fourth Generation war in America might look like? Read Thomas Hobbes’ new future history, Victoria.

https://www.traditionalright.com/the-view-from-olympus-spreading-disorder-and-4gw/ 

Guest Article: The View From Olympus: A 4GW Impeachment? - Martin van Creveld

By

William S. Lind*

As I have said many times, Fourth Generation war is at root a contest for legitimacy.  On one side is the state. On the other is a vast array of alternate primary loyalties: religion, race, tribe, gang, and locality, among others.  Around the world, the contest is going poorly for the state as a growing number of people shift their primary loyalty to one of the many alternatives, for which they are willing to fight.

Washington does not perceive it, absorbed as it is in its own struggles for power and money, but the same contest is going on in this country.  So far, to our great benefit, it has remained on the peripheries. Urban police know they are confronting it in the form of ethnically-based gangs, which are illegal business enterprises that fight.  But the mass of the American people appear still loyal to the state.

The appearance is, I think, deceptive.  On both the Left and the Right, doubts about the legitimacy of the federal government are growing.  Mostly, the doubts are about the legitimacy of the current President, although polls show public perception of Congress is also strongly negative.  There is no question many on the Left regard President Trump as illegitimate. Should a hard-Left figure such as Warren win in 2020, the Right will doubt her legitimacy.  But considering the current President illegitimate is different from thinking the state itself has lost its legitimacy.

Impeachment could change that.  President Trump’s supporters regard his election as proof their voices can be heard, that their interests will be considered in Washington.  They know that to virtually all Democrats and some Republicans, they are “unpersons”. Why? Because they are White, male, or non-feminist female, straight, and mostly Christian.  They are also struggling economically, which means they are not contributors to politicians’ campaigns. The coastal elites dismiss them as rubes and hicks inhabiting “flyover land”.  The Democratic Party, which has embraced the ideology of cultural Marxism, considers them all inherently evil “oppressors” fit only to kiss the feet of blacks, immigrants, gays, feminists, etc., PC’s sainted “victims” groups.

Again, should a Warren win in 2020, President Trump’s supporters will not consider her (or him) a legitimate President.  But if the unholy alliance between Democrats and the Deep State succeeds in driving President Trump from office through impeachment or some other means, that will be a very different story.  At that point, the message to President Trump’s supporters will be, “Your votes don’t matter, because even if you elect a President, we will drive him from office and reduce you to a silent serfdom.  You and your views are entitled to no representation. You are and will remain ‘unpersons.’”

At that point, in the vast electoral sea that is red America, the legitimacy of the system itself, i.e., the state, will be brought into serious question.  And when that happens, the chance of Fourth Generation war here on a large scale will rise dramatically. When you tell people they cannot achieve representation through ballots, they start to think about doing it with bullets.

That electoral map, the one that shows the results of the 2016 election by county, has significant military meaning.  The blue votes are concentrated in cities, which cannot feed themselves. As Chairman Mao said, “Take the countryside and the cities will fall.”  Nor can they be supplied from the sea, because most of the people in the military are Trump supporters, which means the red side will get most of the ships and planes.  The military problem is really quite simple, and need involve virtually no shooting or destruction. You just put the cities under siege and wait for the starving people to come out.  It won’t take long.

The message to Washington is clear and direct: if President Trump is driven from office by anything other than a loss in the 2020 election (if he runs), the legitimacy of the state will be brought into question.  That is a dangerous business that politicians of both parties would be wise to avoid. After all, they will be the first people hanged from the nearest lamppost if widespread 4GW comes here. An impeachment that leads to the checkpoints going up all over rural America is a very bad idea.

* William S. (”Bill”) Lind is the author of the Maneuver War Handbook (1985) and the 4^thGeneration Warfare Handbook (2011) as several other volumes that deal with war. This article was originally published on traditionalRight on 4.11.2019.

http://www.martin-van-creveld.com/guest-article-the-view-from-olympus-a-4gw-impeachment/

Vox Popoli: 4GW in the USA

A military genius warns of what will happen if the Deep State gets its way:

As I have said many times, Fourth Generation war is at root a contest for legitimacy.  On one side is the state. On the other is a vast array of alternate primary loyalties: religion, race, tribe, gang, and locality, among others.  Around the world, the contest is going poorly for the state as a growing number of people shift their primary loyalty to one of the many alternatives, for which they are willing to fight.

Washington does not perceive it, absorbed as it is in its own struggles for power and money, but the same contest is going on in this country.  So far, to our great benefit, it has remained on the peripheries. Urban police know they are confronting it in the form of ethnically-based gangs, which are illegal business enterprises that fight.  But the mass of the American people appear still loyal to the state.

The appearance is, I think, deceptive.  On both the Left and the Right, doubts about the legitimacy of the federal government are growing.  Mostly, the doubts are about the legitimacy of the current President, although polls show public perception of Congress is also strongly negative.  There is no question many on the Left regard President Trump as illegitimate. Should a hard-Left figure such as Warren win in 2020, the Right will doubt her legitimacy.  But considering the current President illegitimate is different from thinking the state itself has lost its legitimacy.

Impeachment could change that.  President Trump’s supporters regard his election as proof their voices can be heard, that their interests will be considered in Washington.  They know that to virtually all Democrats and some Republicans, they are “unpersons”. Why? Because they are White, male, or non-feminist female, straight, and mostly Christian.  They are also struggling economically, which means they are not contributors to politicians’ campaigns. The coastal elites dismiss them as rubes and hicks inhabiting “flyover land”.  The Democratic Party, which has embraced the ideology of cultural Marxism, considers them all inherently evil “oppressors” fit only to kiss the feet of blacks, immigrants, gays, feminists, etc., PC’s sainted “victims” groups.

Again, should a Warren win in 2020, President Trump’s supporters will not consider her (or him) a legitimate President.  But if the unholy alliance between Democrats and the Deep State succeeds in driving President Trump from office through impeachment or some other means, that will be a very different story.  At that point, the message to President Trump’s supporters will be, “Your votes don’t matter, because even if you elect a President, we will drive him from office and reduce you to a silent serfdom.  You and your views are entitled to no representation. You are and will remain ‘unpersons.’”

At that point, in the vast electoral sea that is red America, the legitimacy of the system itself, i.e., the state, will be brought into serious question.  And when that happens, the chance of Fourth Generation war here on a large scale will rise dramatically. When you tell people they cannot achieve representation through ballots, they start to think about doing it with bullets.

The Deep State is playing an incredibly dangerous game here and has been for some time. The thing is, no matter how it turns out, they are not going to win. Messrs. Van Creveld and Lind seldom see eye to eye politically, so when they are both seeing the same danger on the horizon, it behooves one to pay very close attention.

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/11/4gw-in-usa.html

The predictive model (Of hard truths on the Dallas police shooting ) - by Vox Day

As William S. Lind predicted it would in his book ON WAR, 4GW has arrived in America and is targeting the police. Because the police have militarized and lost their moral authority, they are now deemed legitimate enemy targets by a growing number of armed individuals.
- December 20, 2014

Demilitarization is without question in the material interests of the police as well.  They have started a war of escalation and attrition that they cannot possibly win.... It does not take a master logician to observe that all the "whatever I need to do to get home safe" mentality guarantees is that abusive police homes will soon be unsafe.  And the growing Hispanic population means that there will likely be more Latin American-style infiltration, assassination, and terror directed at the lower levels of law enforcement. 
- July 20, 2013 

I am not at all surprised that the police are now being targeted for murder due to nothing more than their membership in the Badge Gang. And there isn't a soul in the country who can reasonably argue that the police haven't collectively begged for such targeting, considering how many innocent Americans they have killed with shameless impunity in the last two decades.... Some protest, some shoot. If the police don't abandon their present path of violence and start prosecuting police killers instead of protecting them, they can expect more of the latter and less of the former.
- May 31, 2011

No doubt some readers will have the usual hissy fit that my utter lack of regard for the police means that I'm some kind of liberal hippy. But for those who are inclined to believe that, I'd merely ask: what is so conservative, what is so very freedom-loving, about a police state? When the police put down the machine guns, stop dressing like Darth Vader in a Wehrmacht-style helmet and start behaving politely again instead of knocking down doors and shooting pets, I'll be happy to reconsider the issue.
- February 21, 2007 

In the aftermath of the Dallas police shooting, it is understandable that many Americans are shocked, scared, and upset. The post-Civil Rights Act America has not turned out to be the society they thought it was, indeed, it is becoming increasingly obvious that those terrible racist Southern segregationists were correct all along. Targeted assassinations of authority figures are not a sign of a stable, well-ordered society.

But I have neither patience nor sympathy for those who have been emailing, commenting, and Tweeting to say that they are shocked by my comments with regards to Dallas and the overly militarized US police. I have said nothing I have not said many times before. My position has not changed one iota on the subject for over a decade. I have repeatedly predicted such events would take place, nor am I alone in that, as William S. Lind repeatedly warned about it as a consequence of 4GW coming to America in his book of collected columns, On War.

I am neither shocked nor surprised that the events I predicted are taking place, any more than I am surprised that the post-1965 demographic changes have led to a less intelligent, less prosperous, and less stable country.

So, you'll have to excuse me if I'm not inclined to pay any attention to the emotionally incontinent ravings of people who are not only surprised, but observably shocked by what recently took place in Dallas. I told you this was going to happen and I even told you why. If you didn't do the same, if you can't point to ten years of correct predictions, then I suggest that you learn to shut up and listen when more perspicacious individuals are explaining the situation to you. Ask questions if you don't understand something. But regardless, understand that your emotional reaction in the heat of the moment is simply not as relevant as the cold and logical analysis of those who have been thinking calmly about the subject for more than ten years.

Now, as for the binary-thinking idiots who think if you don't support the cops means you are a murderous BLM-supporting Black Panther, let me explain something to you. Nothing the police do - nothing - is going to turn America's blacks into whites. They cannot keep a nonexistent peace. History clearly teaches there are four ways to permanently resolve the current situation: amalgamation, segregation, deportation, and elimination.

Which of those do you support? If you don't support one of them, you're not serious and your opinion doesn't count. Yes, they're all terrible options. Yes, they're all ugly and awful and horrific. So is history.

BLM is the proximate cause. But I didn't predict that the police would become targets because I knew, back in 2007, that BLM would one day come to be. I predicted it because the police abandoned the moral authority that rendered them untouchable, and which protected them much better than any body armor, bigger guns, or "shoot when scared" rules of engagement.

If you want to virtue-signal or strike dramatic poses about how you'll never read this blog again or buy any of my books, that's fine. No one is going to try to convince you otherwise. But you should understand that it is completely apparent to everyone here that you were never paying very much attention in the first place.

https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-predictive-model.html

http://www.antiwar.com/lind/?articleid=1702 - Understanding Fourth Generation War

Vox Popoli: An ambush in Portland

This picture makes it perfectly clear that Jay Danielson, the Trump supporter shot and killed in Portland, was not only murdered, he was targeted by a group of people working in concert to kill him. The picture shows how the spotter directly behind Pappas is giving direction to the shooter, Michael Reinoehl, who is already drawing his gun and stepping out from his hiding place despite not having a line-of-sight to his target.

AC has considerably more on the subject, which may explain why the Portland police are looking for information concerning the man with his arm around the woman with the striped dress behind and to the right of Pappas. This tends to raise the question, why was Danielson targeted in the first place? The level of preparation involved suggests that it wasn't merely because he was wearing MAGA gear that night.

 

The observable fact is that Antifa is a highly organized and well-funded terrorist organization, which is why the MAGA patriots have been reliably outmaneuvered despite being better armed and having better individual combat capabilities. See: The Hero Kyle Rittenhouse. Antifa is engaging in active 4GW while the MAGA forces are occupied in failing Sun Tzu 101 and failing it badly. That being said, Antifa doesn't actually understand 4GW, which is why they keep failing on the moral level and thereby losing despite their tactical and operational successes.

 

Antifa tactical units are organized into standard ‘company sturctrure’ of up to 20 individual soldiers under the immediate control of a comany commander. While there are ‘special units’, most notable the ‘reconnaissance & coordination’ teams of bicyclists, the base of the C&C structure for Antifa is the company.

 

Company commanders are ‘first lieutenants’ and may be identified in the field by their actions within the group, and frequently by possession of DX SDR units of some form. These ‘duplex (send/receive) software-defined radio’ units will be small, and most probably attached to a smart phone. It is through the SDRs that the encrypted commands are passed to operational units. On arrest, 1st Lieutenants have been observed discarding their identifying equipment as well as destroying their phones.First Lieutenants can also be identified as being the local hub for bicycle traffic. In observations of rioting/looting activity, particularly with long-distance videos of quality, bicyclists can clearly be seen reporting to 1st Lieutenants and even seeking them out in the mob. For this activity, bicyclists have been noted to employ ‘proximate apps’ to locate their units & commanders.

 

The Anitfa field orgnaization has up to 4 companies reporting to a ‘captain (coordinator)’. Antifa Captains may be identified by common actions & equipment. Captains are ‘free floating’ within the mob movement, but will always be associated with increased bicycle traffic as well as ’emblems’ of authority/command. These emblems include sepcific types & shapes of video camera gear. Antifa soldiers are trained to center on the emblems of both 1st Lieutentant as well as Captains. Some of the Captains have been observed pulling their command together by holding up the long lens video camera overhead while running a pattern of flashes from the light bars. These are swept around the mob & new organization results.

 

Captains control and coordinate their company commanders by use of the SDR devides & will be observed in the field speaking into throat microphones while receiving by ear plugs or in-built headphones in their helmets. So far, all identified captains have been observed to be wearing some form of short coverage helmets. These appear to be adapted from the forms used by rock climbers. Captains will also be indentified by the apps loaded on their phones, the SDR units,

 

In field actions, captains can be most frequently spotted by their movements coordinating 1st lieutenants. Their most often observed task is enforcing discipline during the riots. In video footage of the day time looting in CA, the captains can be observed running up to enforce movement of specific companies that had been bogged down in looting, rather than attending to the mission being directed by the captain. In such incidents the first action of the captain is to force the soldiers attention on the video camera being waved around. Once recognition of rank is obtained, the captains can be seen pushing & forcing Antifa soldiers to specific actions, including pointing out their 1st Lieutenants. Captains have also been observed directing companies to attack specific locations they were identifying from maps on their phones. Looting has been preplanned for specific strategic and tactical goals as has been observed with the complex Antifa C&C actions at the looting of the Melrose high end Art store in CA.

 

In the field, Antifa C&C structure can be observed to include a ‘Colonel’ rank. These Colonel Antifa commanders are identified by being always accompanied by a ‘squad’ of up to half company strength used to control and protect the Colonel within the mob movements. Colonels have been identified as their supporting soldiers created paths for them through active riot areas. Other identifiers include near constant attendance by bicyclists, many of whom have ‘rolling command centers’ of digital & other equipment on racks on the bikes. As with Captains, the Colonels will also most frequently be seen wearing helmets, many with antenna off the back. These are part of the encrypted SDR systems that have been found to be hotspots of radio activity during riots. Antifa relies heavily on digital equipment, but other than minor levels of encryption, appears to be unsophisticated in wider applications, nor do they appear to be aware of their vulnerability to location by EMF triangulation.

 

The Antifa command and control structure, as so far observed, does not expose any levels higher than Colonel to visibility. All the ‘General’ level field officers have so far only been observed in vehicles being used as coordination centers. These have been noted to be extensively modified with electronic support systems.

 

The structure of Antifa in the field most closely resembles the ‘color’ revolutions created by the CIA. The tactics employed so far in these Antifa field actions have very simiular targets & tactics as was observed as far back in time as the Viet Nam conflict, and in other arenas in which the CIA created wars and destabilized regimes.

 

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2020/09/an-ambush-in-portland.html 

Kenosha and Kyle? Unexpected places, events and especially people are often examples of clear solutions to our cultural conundrums created by the lack of courage of our convictions! As if we had any? - CL

First of all - What really happened with those Kenosha shootings - By Grant Baker – a review of some videos and this comment: Genuflecting to the will of a collectivist mob failed to save the young libertarian; guns did not fail, and every American should know it!

Who was involved? Kenosha: All Three Anarchist Rioters Shot Have Violent Criminal Histories, by Eric Striker - The Unz Review - Journalists hired by elite media may side with them against a 17-year-old boy engaging in self-defense, but it remains to be seen if America will.

What we learned - Carrying a weapon you are afraid to use is worse than no weapon at all. Showing up for a battle you are unwilling to fight is worse than not showing up at all.

A Danged Good Question! - by Dr. Jack Wheeler: WHAT GOOD IS THE SECOND AMENDMENT IF NOBODY USES IT? - what more do we need to ask?

Where to NOW? After Kenosha -- Divided We Stand - Author: Tom Luongo - It would always come to this. At some point there would be a reckoning for BLM and Antifa.

The shootings in Kenosha, WI are a dividing line for America.

This is the moment where normal people finally said, “Enough. There will be consequences. “

As I said myself just a few days ago: Since change comes incrementally - but in fits and spurts - at some point in the not too distant future, the defining moment will be reached. That will be when we no longer consider our vulnerability to arrest or any other deterrent to our response and action.

When it's a matter of survival, no mayor, sheriff or cop will be able to stop what follows - and it sure looks like all the pieces are falling in place for that moment to occur soon.

IT HAS! In Kenosha – with Kyle!

And I say this despite the fact that we have de facto gun control! What do you call it when we are afraid to use a Constitutional right to self-defense because of the overwhelming evidence of subsequent arrest and prosecution? That is gun control for all intents and purposes!

As Tom Luongo states clearly:  The myth of policing is failing. There aren’t enough cops to quell these riots. The State has been revealed as their enablers.

The law has been used against property owners told they shouldn’t defend themselves or their businesses.

They’ve been afraid of being the ones who cross the line while the looters overwhelm the streets. That impulse will continue to wither. This anarcho-tyranny will not stand for much longer.

Furthermore, if you think this will blow over soon – HISTORY shows that we are OVERDUE for it not only to continue, but intensify - Fourth Generation War – Fourth Turning – 4GW- Whadat? – which I posted last December and is well worth reading.

Indeed - That which has been is that which will be, And that which has been done is that which will be done. So there is nothing new under the sun. - Ecclesiastes 1:9

No, we don’t know the day or the hour – but we can clearly see the pattern from history as explained by the authors of 4GW.

Let’s also understand something – I do not expect everyone to read these – only those who have a passion for understanding and perhaps actually establishing their own mentoring circle. Intellectual curiosity is a must at DaLimbrawLibrary – a library of references – designed to be used as the need to know, understand and research comes up!

If you somehow stumbled onto this blog site and are wondering what is going on here

In the meantime, all the signs of DaPerfectStorm are lining up – so be prepared!

Vox Day:

The Deep State is playing an incredibly dangerous game here and has been for some time. The thing is, no matter how it turns out, they are not going to win. Messrs. Van Creveld and Lind seldom see eye to eye politically, so when they are both seeing the same danger on the horizon, it behooves one to pay very close attention.

Biden’s Chances Rest on a John Podesta-Planned Military Coup, Ballot Harvesting, Police Shootings, and a False Flag — by Joaquin FLORES (Text only)

"The likelihood that the 2020 election will not produce an agreed winner, barring effective active measures from Trump, is nearly certain. Based on the Northop/Standard model, Trump has an over 90% chance at winning an election if following the rules in place in the past dozen election cycles. This explains why the DNC has introduced as many X factors as possible – a politicized Covid-19 response, slanted news which riles up reliable protest movement assets towards rioting and looting, and a mailed-out ballots scheme which is indistinguishable in effect from known problem vote riggings techniques like ballot harvesting."

 

Our early August prognosis published by SCF on August 23rd, that Joe Biden would not concede the election even if Trump wins, was confirmed by Hillary Clinton herself on August 25th .

This piece will follow up on the strategy involved in that piece, and develop these in light of John Podesta’s election war-game and the situation in Kenosha, Wisconsin. In the Kenosha situation, we have armed groups on both sides, creating a volatile situation in what increasingly looks like a pre-civil war scenario. All together, we can now see the following is evident:

Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential bid now depends on a combination of a.) severe social media and search engine censorship of book-burning proportions, b.) signs from the military that they will back Biden (per John Podesta ) on the heels of c.) an inconclusive election (mailed-out blank ballots), and d.) (the Soros wing of) BLM’s ability engage in rioting and to pose as Trump-like supporters (QAnon and adjacent, such as ‘Save The Children’) in order to e.) conduct a dangerous or illegal public stunt (false flag).

Trump’s deep campaign has revolved around Christian, Gnostic, and New Age themes, which (with regard to the latter two) intersect themes of spirituality previously in the domain of the coastal left. These will form the substrate of a focus on this election being a contest of Good vs. Evil, of Light vs. Dark, of the champions of children against sexual predators, as well as anti-war and anti-vax themes; wherein ‘war mongers’ like ‘Hillary Clinton’, alleged child abusers like ‘John Podesta’, and regulatory capturers of healthcare like ‘Bill Gates’, serve as anthropomorphic reifications of unadulterated evil.

This is a novel phenomenon, and does not represent pre-Trump Republican tropes and organizing issues. Mainstream Republican tropes were represented at the RNC convention, and work to establish a continuity – even if ill fitted – between traditional conservatism (previously opposed to Trump) and Trump’s hardcore base.

 

The Coup – Color Revolution and Arab Spring

Past political contests after the assassination of Kennedy appear to be based upon a consensus on key issues on international relations among elected officials, because the permanent administration had consensus on these themselves. But the rise of Trump, and the great lengths a part of the permanent administration has gone to frustrate his efforts, strongly indicate that there is now a political crisis and division so great, at the level of leadership, that all the soft-power and coup methods (used by the CIA abroad) are now being used within the U.S. against the executive branch.

A part of this permanent administration appears to back Trump, or rather Trump appears to be ‘their candidate’, and this may well in part explain his electoral success in 2016 despite what appeared as overwhelming odds to the contrary.

Perhaps the most visible permutation of this division and crisis were events in the deserts of Syria and Iraq, where Pentagon backed Kurdish YPG forces fought against CIA backed ISIS forces, with Americans in the employ of these institutions embedded on either side, firing at each other and taking losses. It would make sense that to military intelligence, such an incoherent and openly corrosive dynamic would need to be finally headed off.

Therefore, all of the lessons drawn from the Color Revolution, Fourth Generational Warfare (4GW), counter-insurgency and hybrid warfare, learned in our study of the events of Yugoslavia, Occupy Wall Street, BLM, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Ukraine, Brazil, Venezuela and lately Belarus, all become necessary reading in order to understand the absolutely destabilized position that the U.S. finds itself in as we approach the 2020 election.

We should expect, in line with the color-springs tactic, that police will engage in the killings of black men, orchestrated by police secret societies operating on behest of the permanent administration (known colloquially and hereafter as the ‘deep state’). These will be timed in such a way for maximum utility with regard to high/low points in the campaigns of the two candidates.

Kenosha On Fire

Such an incident just occurred on August 23rd in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in the shooting of a black man, Jacob Blake. Standard and divisive motifs followed: the event was not clear cut, and definitive aspects of the case are open to interpretation and subject to confirmation bias in the public’s eye. This will provoke reaction and polarization, with the nuances and facts of the situation and its context often traded in for political expedience. Pro law enforcement types more closely associated with conservative politics will say the shooting was justified prior to a hearing of the facts, and will include biographical information about Blake which demonstrates his past criminal offenses, while ignoring that these past offenses do not form the basis for legitimizing a ‘summary execution’. Likewise, anti-police liberals will condemn the shooting as racist and unjustified, without regard to the views on race of the police involved, and without a review of the actual facts that anti-Trump corporate media was reluctant to expose but which were contained in the police report. At the same time, there is a long history of police falsifying evidence and statements to justify shootings such as these.

Note that the governor of Wisconsin, the Democrat Tony Evers, is the one who declared a state of emergency for Covid-19 and an unpopular lockdown. He is a career government bureaucrat, and was met by a mobilization of armed citizens against those diktats. Yet the fall-out and riots in the aftermath of the Blake shooting, of which the Evers-mandated high unemployment (per lockdown) forms the substrate but yet expressed through BLM/Antifa riots, will be blamed on Trump, whose years in public service can be counted on a single hand, and whose general efforts have been to end the lockdown and ‘re-open the economy’. Evers will not call on rioters to observe social distancing, and will call the armed detachments involved in arson and looting, ‘protesters’, and the constitutionalist militias who deployed to protect the rights of both protestors (from police excess) and civilians (from protestor-arsonists) as ‘right wing’.

The increasing emergence of ‘armed peaceful protestors’, an Orwellian oxymoron as a phrase in itself, first appeared in the Syrian conflict, where American corporate media and fake-left publications like Counterpunch regularly referred to armed Al Qaeda/ISIS/FSA groups engaged in shootings and killings as ‘peaceful protesters’.

 

In our past pieces, we have explored the mechanisms that the DNC and the permanent administration will use to nullify or falsify the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election in November. This included the use of Democrat governors in certain states, as we previously wrote, to declare a state winner so that its electors go to Biden, in manufactured cases where the desired vote by state citizens could not be determined. It included the use of NGO employees, Labor/BLM/Antifa activists alongside contact tracers to use the coronavirus and social upheaval around manufactured racial justice issues to interfere with voters’ access to polls, and voters’ use of mailed-out ballots and ballot harvesting schemes.

In our last piece we disclosed that the DNC plans to have Biden declare himself the winner of the election, whatever the pending (inconclusive, tampered, stolen, etc.) outcome may be.

In a separate piece published on FRN, this author explained that for the Trump strategy against the riots to work, would require a plan that involved the co-opting of the BLM hashtag by his supporters. This would mean a separation of the BLM from Antifa, the latter being a designated terrorist group.

We explained there that this approach would be similar to that taken by Russia and Syria in the Syrian war, where certain Free Syrian Army (FSA) units had to be separated from ISIS, so that these FSA units could be considered ‘legitimate opposition’ (a change of tact in itself, previously all armed opposition were considered illegitimate by the Syrian government), and even incorporated into joint attacks with the Syrian Arab Army (SAA – Assad’s forces) against ISIS.

Of particular interest will be how the public and courts view the actions of Kenosha Guard militia member Kyle Rittenhouse. These two videos, the news commentary dubbed over and to the contrary, show Rittenhouse acting in self-defense. It also shows that those with him provided first responder assistance to the man who pulled a gun on Rittenhouse and who was subsequently shot in the arm.

 

Censorship

We now know, per the New York Times, that Facebook execs have been meeting to implement a strategy to censor information that Donald Trump has won the 2020 election, because of the working contingency plan (which appears to still be in operation) that Biden will declare victory regardless of a determinable outcome, as we previously wrote. This, however as we explained, would result in a vote in the Congress and Senate where it is likely that Nancy Pelosi may assume the presidency.

Simultaneously, Facebook execs have had a difficult time pushing against a terrified DNC which has been making irrational demands to further censorship.

Why are the DNC’s Censorship demands on Facebook irrational?

The DNC demands are fear-based and reactionary, and while Facebook execs have been happy to do the bidding of the DNC and pro-deep state Republicans (still a majority), they know the requests to further censor pro-Trump twitter accounts are known to produce the opposite effect. This is confirmed by the known science on the subject.

Studies of social revolutions and regime legitimacy show that further censorship in an environment where citizens have access to alternate informational lines, only erodes the legitimacy of the regime. Such a study was conducted on how the DDR tried to cover up the mass exodus of citizens into West Germany some thirty years ago [Sometimes Less Is More: Censorship, News Falsification, and Disapproval in 1989 East Germany . Christian Gläßel Katrin Paula , 2019].

Facebook execs called upon MIT to conduct a study to help establish their case, and a layman’s version of these conclusions were published in MIT’s online magazine ‘Technology Review’ in a piece titled, It’s Too Late to Stop QAnon with Fact Checks and Account Bans.

In this article by MIT, it is reported that: “Friedberg, who has studied the movement deeply, says he believes it is “absolutely” too late for mainstream social-media platforms to stop QAnon, although there are some things they could do to, say, limit its adherents’ ability to evangelize on Twitter.”

Like the study of the DDR and regime legitimacy, the DNC finds that the more they push for censorship, the more popular the pro-Trump conspiracy theories grow.

What appears to be a work-around for this conundrum the deep state faces, is a new development, where the Soros wing of BLM has been instructed to stage at least one rally (so far) in Chicago that took place during the week of August 17th. In this, a group wearing what looked like Soros wing BLM uniforms actually carried placards associated with QAnon – such as WWG1WGA, #SaveTheChildren, #EndHumanTrafficking, and were replete with signs calling for ‘ending the pedophile Satanic cabal’.

Podesta’s Simulation Sees Public Looking to Military for a Sign

Of particular interest is that John Podesta recently ran a simulation on the DNC’s approach and response to election 2020, where he played the role of Biden. This war-game exercise was covered by David Frum for the Atlantic. Despite its counter-factual ‘facts’ and erroneous presumptions (poll based, etc.), the findings were startling.

Neither side would concede, courts would be too slow to act, Antifa and QAnon groups would clash in the streets, and the actions of the military, in either direction, or as with the National Guard – as deployed by the Justice Department under AG Barr, would be the deciding factor.

In that simulation there were a total of 67 players who met on Zoom in the first week of June 2020. This was composed of high-profile critics of President Donald Trump, including law professors, retired military officers, former senior U.S. officials, political strategists, attorneys, and cable news room editors.

We have to reiterate that Podesta, playing the role of Biden, understands that the real outcome of the election will therefore be the position that the military takes.

A wing of Trump’s supporters – Qanon – are adamant that military intelligence, or at least an operation within the NSA, will not only back Trump, but have been backing Trump since before the 2016 election. They believe this partly explains Trump’s victory despite what they see as an election ‘rigged’ by Clinton – thereby explaining Clinton’s otherwise unfounded confidence that she would win by a landslide in that fateful election now four years ago.

On the other side have been several notable members of the deep state, such as Colin Powell and former CIA chief John Brennan.

This all gels with the insider information that we have written about from SEIU, which as explained previously, forms the nexus between the Biden ground campaign and its GOTV, Bernie’s ‘Our Revolution’ and ‘Working Families Party’, Antifa, and BLM.

Conclusion

The likelihood that the 2020 election will not produce an agreed winner, barring effective active measures from Trump, is nearly certain. Based on the Northop/Standard model, Trump has an over 90% chance at winning an election if following the rules in place in the past dozen election cycles. This explains why the DNC has introduced as many X factors as possible – a politicized Covid-19 response, slanted news which riles up reliable protest movement assets towards rioting and looting, and a mailed-out ballots scheme which is indistinguishable in effect from known problem vote riggings techniques like ballot harvesting.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/08/30/bidens-chances-rest-on-john-podesta-planned-military-coup-ballot-harvesting-police-shootings-false-flag/