Which only means “we” are doomed to repeat these….
I have begun to read a book that examines the history that led
to the Great War. This period has always been of interest to me as I have
not found satisfying explanations as to why Europe decided to consume itself so
completely (and deal its suicide blow). Toward this end, I came
across The Lost History of 1914: How the Great War Was Not
Inevitable, by Jack Beatty.
From a review at Amazon:
Augmenting the literature on the origins of WWI, Beatty dwells
on domestic political situations in the initial belligerents, plus the U.S.
According to him, but for those particular arrangements and specific events,
war might not have erupted in August 1914.
Beatty examines the internal politics of the several
belligerents: Germany, Russia, England, The United States and Mexico (examined
together), Austria-Hungary, and France. I have only read a few pages, yet
have found a couple of items worth touching upon – timely for today, given
current events, hence my desire to capture these outside of a more general
review of the book (and incorporation of dozens of dates for my Timeline to War).
War is Improbable
One most likely feature regarding NATO’s actions toward Russia
in our time is that none of the leaders of this eastward-advancing military
force believe that their actions will ever lead to full-scale war. I find
this both risky and nonsensical, but no one of any importance or influence
asked me.
It turns out that the same was true during events leading up to
the suicide blow of the West – the Great War:
Regarding war as improbable, Holger Afflerbach
hypothesizes, leaders took risks that made it possible. Armageddon
happened because men believed it could not happen.
We know improbable shortly thereafter became certain. Until the eve of war, the reality of war – and especially such a completely
devastating conflict – was not considered probable.
Given the risks of confrontation with Russia today, I find only
two possibilities behind the actions of those leaders who are pushing those
risks: 1) they do not believe war is probable – Russia will not react violently
no matter the provocation, or 2) they are suicidal (and homicidal) maniacs.
“All of the above” is also an acceptable choice.
They Never Saw it Coming
In reference to the revolutions that consumed Tsarist Russia,
Beatty writes:
Reviewing twenty-six international crises between 1898 and 1967,
the political scientist Richard Ned Lebow concludes, “These
case histories suggest the pessimistic hypothesis that those policymakers with
the greatest need to learn from external reality appear the least likely to do
so.”
Despite the countless signs – strikes, warnings from more
prescient advisors, etc. – those who were the ultimate decision makers
were oblivious to the realities that were soon to consume the Tsar, his family,
and millions of Russian citizens; one of the bloodiest revolutions known to man
boiling right under their noses, and most missed all signs.
They live
in a bubble; they see the only reality that they know. This is one
failing of the elite and their mouthpieces and opinion-shapers. They
couldn’t see Trump coming, they couldn’t see Brexit coming, etc., etc., etc.
If they
were gods, the elite would not have this problem. The human elite is
characterized by hubris, not omniscience; intelligence, not wisdom.
