Because
the three major rivals in the world, Russia, China, and the United States, each
have nuclear weapons and systems to wipe each other out and make the world
uninhabitable, there is only one option that spells the survival of mankind
along with its current state of knowledge. No one of these three countries and
no alliance of lesser powers can take over the world and form a world
government because the others will resist. If one of these attempts to rule the
world, the likelihood of nuclear war rises dramatically.
There
are several other possible paths in the future. One is the conquest of Earth
from outer space. This is extremely unlikely. A second path is that these major
rivals merge to form a world government. This too is unlikely because of their
many differences and rivalries.
A
situation is unstable in which the U.S. views Russia and China as enemies and
pressures them in various ways in order to achieve unipolar dominance, or in
which either of them or the two combined pressures the U.S. so that they become
dominant. That situation cannot lead to a victory because of the nuclear
technology.
A
situation is also unstable in which one side rushes to create a technological
advantage such that it neutralizes the nuclear war capacity of a rival. Any such
supposed advantage is likely to prove incomplete, uncertain and provocative,
eliciting nuclear war. Rival technological advances will also undermine this
path.
The
most likely path that is stable is the peaceful co-existence of the rivals who
engage in cooperation on certain matters. This is the current situation, and
it’s symbolized by the U.N. structure. However, this path is also marked by
military rivalry on all sides, which constantly creates the threat of nuclear
confrontations.
Empires
are expansionist by nature, and all three empires, those of Russia, China and
the U.S., are butting up against one another. This condition cannot continue
without leading to one of two opposed outcomes. Either there is warfare or the
three empires reach an accommodation because it is in their interests to do so.
Warfare at any scale is likely to escalate into world nuclear destruction. The
only alternative is a multi-polar world with enough cooperation and mutual
respect of the rival countries that they live and let live.
In order for this to happen,
the most aggressive voices and influences on these three states must be removed
from influence and power. The conflicts that the three powers have at their
borders or the borders of their allies have to be quieted. The areas in which
they cooperate must be enhanced.
It
would help a great deal if the leaders of all three empires were able to
articulate a common vision of a multi-polar cooperative world. This would make
peaceful co-existence a top and urgent priority. These leaders have to start
with do-able steps and compromises now. Everyone is going to have to give up
some things that they now demand or are doing overtly and covertly.
Michael
S. Rozeff [send
him mail] is a retired Professor of Finance living in East Amherst,
New York. He is the author of the free e-book Essays on
American Empire: Liberty vs. Domination and the free
e-book The
U.S. Constitution and Money: Corruption and Decline.
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