We will continue to prosecute the campaign
against terrorists, but great-power competition – not terrorism – is now the
primary focus of US national security.’ Henceforth Russia and China will
be America’s main enemies, with Iran and North Korea thrown in for good
measure.
So declared US Secretary of Defense, James
Mattis, last week in a statement of profound importance for the world.
For
the past seventeen years, the US military has been laying waste to the Muslim
world in the faux `war on terrorism.’ Afghanistan, Iraq, much of Syria,
Somalia, Pakistan – all have been heavily bombed. US B-52’s and B-1 heavy
bombers have tried to pound those resisting American ‘guidance’ into
submission.
In
Afghanistan, America’s longest war, President Donald Trump ordered a doubling
of bombing against Taliban forces battling US occupation. Now, the US is
running very low on bombs, guided munitions and even air-to-air missiles for
some reason. Stores of munitions are being rushed from the US Pacific
command to the Mideast.
At
the same time, the US is fast running out of Muslim targets to bomb, now that
the bogeyman ISIS has vanished into thin air and US air attacks in Syria are
being minimized for fear of clashing with Russia. Iran still remains on
the US potential hit list.
Which
brings us back to General ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis. He is quite right that
so-called terrorists (that’s anyone who actively opposes the Lex Americana)
pose no real life or death threat to the US mainland.
But if so, how then to maintain the $1
trillion US military budget? Well, of course, trot out those good old
‘Reds Under Our Beds.’ Actually, the Pentagon has been planning a new war
with China for the past three years, a mainly air and naval conflict to
dominate China’s coasts and seas. The Pentagon is loading up on new
aircraft, missiles, satellites and naval craft for the next Pacific War, and
trying to enlist India as an ally against China.
But
what then about Russia? Not so easy. The likely theater for a
US-Russia clash is on the Baltic coast, Ukraine, the Black Sea or Syria.
In this case, the US would be confronted by the same problem that afflicted
France in the fall of 1939.
Few people know that it was France that
first attacked Germany, not the other way around. Responding to
the German invasion of Poland, France and Britain declared war on
Germany. French divisions began to invade Germany’s Rhineland. But
after a few skirmishes the French high command, under the inept Gen. Maurice
Gamelin, didn’t know what to do next. Germany was large, and the
defensive-minded French did not anticipate occupying its entire country.
After
a brief demonstration, the French Army withdrew behind the Maginot Line.
Hitler did not counter-attack in hope he could forge a peace treaty with London
and Paris. Winston Churchill and his fellow imperialists furiously sought
to push Britain into war with Germany. But months of inactivity went by,
known as the ‘Sitzkrieg’ or ‘drôle de guerre’ until Germany acted decisively.
This
would also be America’s problem in a war against Russia. How deep into
Russia to attack (assuming no use of nuclear weapons)? How to protect
ever lengthening supply lines? Napoleon and Hitler faced the same
challenges and failed.
Of course, this supposes the US is ready for war. In truth,
neither the US and NATO nor Russia are in any way prepared to fight a real war
on land, sea and air. Military forces on both sides have been so run down and
depleted by little wars and budget cuts that there are serious shortages of war
stocks and aging equipment.
Key
NATO member Germany is in a shambles. Its feminized military, run by a
nice but incompetent lady defense minister, could not fight its way out of a
paper bag. France is not much better off. The US armed forces
and Britain are critically short of spares, munitions, transport, and
armor. Russia’s once mighty Red Army is short of everything. Both
east and west are simply unready for a real war.
As if
there is any reason for one. There is not. Those jackanapes in the US
Congress and media trying to inflate online mischief by 20-something Russian
hackers into a second Pearl Harbor are crying ‘fire’ in a crowded theater.
A final respectful note to Gen. Mattis
(my dad was a marine): A good general does not pick a fight with two,
far–away major powers at once. The trick is to turn them against one
another. Declaring a future war against China and Russia is a crazy idea.
Only draft-dodgers and generals who lost the Vietnam War could come up with it.
Eric
Margolis [send him
mail] is the author of War at the Top of the World and the new
book, American Raj: Liberation or Domination?: Resolving the
Conflict Between the West and the Muslim World. See his website.
Copyright © 2018 Eric Margolis
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