Those who doubt my
observations on the subject, and fail to credit Martin van Creveld's similar
warnings, would do well to heed popular military
historian Max Hasting's similar warnings on the subject of war and
the mass migration crisis:
Could this lead to WAR in Europe?
Last week in Washington, I met an old friend who is one of the smartest strategy wonks I know. His business is crystal ball-gazing. During our conversation, he offered some speculations about what could happen to our world over the next decade or two which made my hair stand on end.
He predicts that the seismic turbulence in the Middle East will continue, and indeed worsen, unless or until the West is willing to commit stabilisation forces to the region. He calculates that an army of the order of magnitude of 450,000 men would be necessary, to have any chance of success.
In the absence of such an effort — for which he admits the political will does not exist on either side of the Atlantic, and is unlikely to do so in the future — he believes that the tidal wave of migration to Europe from the Middle East and Africa will continue, with consequences much greater and graver than any national leader has yet acknowledged.
He suggested that war within our continent is not impossible before the middle of the century, as southern European nations are swamped by incomers, and Greece stands first in line to become a failed state.
We can defer for a moment the question of whether my friend’s most frightening scenarios are likely to be fulfilled.
What was sobering about our conversation is that here was an uncommonly well-informed man who believes that the earthquakes shaking the Middle East, together with the scale of economic migration from Africa, could undo all our comfortable assumptions about the stability of the society in which we live, including our confidence that Europe has turned its back on war for ever.
The most obvious lesson of history is that events and threats always take us by surprise.
Last week in Washington, I met an old friend who is one of the smartest strategy wonks I know. His business is crystal ball-gazing. During our conversation, he offered some speculations about what could happen to our world over the next decade or two which made my hair stand on end.
He predicts that the seismic turbulence in the Middle East will continue, and indeed worsen, unless or until the West is willing to commit stabilisation forces to the region. He calculates that an army of the order of magnitude of 450,000 men would be necessary, to have any chance of success.
In the absence of such an effort — for which he admits the political will does not exist on either side of the Atlantic, and is unlikely to do so in the future — he believes that the tidal wave of migration to Europe from the Middle East and Africa will continue, with consequences much greater and graver than any national leader has yet acknowledged.
He suggested that war within our continent is not impossible before the middle of the century, as southern European nations are swamped by incomers, and Greece stands first in line to become a failed state.
We can defer for a moment the question of whether my friend’s most frightening scenarios are likely to be fulfilled.
What was sobering about our conversation is that here was an uncommonly well-informed man who believes that the earthquakes shaking the Middle East, together with the scale of economic migration from Africa, could undo all our comfortable assumptions about the stability of the society in which we live, including our confidence that Europe has turned its back on war for ever.
The most obvious lesson of history is that events and threats always take us by surprise.
We already know the West
will not stabilize the Middle East, for the obvious reason that it is the West,
specifically, the USA, that has intentionally destabilized it.
This means there will be war in Europe, sooner or later, although the question is still out if it will be between the ultranationalists and the EU elite or between the nationalists and the immigrants. In either case, the European nationalists will win easily because they vastly outnumber their opponents and the European militaries are insignificant. At the present, the prospect of the EU collapsing, the nationalists taking power in the various nations, and mass repatriations taking place is preventing the public from turning to the more extreme ultras.
The more serious problem, as I have been pointing out for decades now, is in the USA itself, where US attempts to destabilize the Middle East, combined with the 1965 Immigration Act, have resulted in the destabilization of the USA. At the present, the optimism that surrounds the Trumpening is tending to relieve the pressures created by the largest invasion in human history, but the jury is very far from out whether Trump will win the White House and if he will actually fulfill his supporters' hopes and expectations should he take office.
It is telling, is it not, that while conventional historians have virtually nothing to say on the subject, the military historians all know what is coming as a result of the mass immigration into the West.
This means there will be war in Europe, sooner or later, although the question is still out if it will be between the ultranationalists and the EU elite or between the nationalists and the immigrants. In either case, the European nationalists will win easily because they vastly outnumber their opponents and the European militaries are insignificant. At the present, the prospect of the EU collapsing, the nationalists taking power in the various nations, and mass repatriations taking place is preventing the public from turning to the more extreme ultras.
The more serious problem, as I have been pointing out for decades now, is in the USA itself, where US attempts to destabilize the Middle East, combined with the 1965 Immigration Act, have resulted in the destabilization of the USA. At the present, the optimism that surrounds the Trumpening is tending to relieve the pressures created by the largest invasion in human history, but the jury is very far from out whether Trump will win the White House and if he will actually fulfill his supporters' hopes and expectations should he take office.
It is telling, is it not, that while conventional historians have virtually nothing to say on the subject, the military historians all know what is coming as a result of the mass immigration into the West.
