Global oil output is projected to fall 6.6% in Q2 - the largest quarterly drop since the COVID lockdowns shut the world down on purpose.
Tanker traffic through Hormuz collapsed from around seventy a day to fewer than fifteen.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, originally created in 1975 for exactly this scenario, is currently being used for… I don’t know… just about any other scenario. Seven consecutive weekly drawdowns. And then the most recent one, 8.6 million barrels, clocking in as the largest single week on record. With nearly half of the released crude being exported because that’s what’s called capitalism.
Economies are contracting......
.....In 1712, Thomas Newcomen built a steam-powered atmospheric pump to drain the flooded mines. It was enormous and burnt about a tonne of coal per horsepower-hour, which sounds inefficient until you remember that the alternative was the mine being unusable.
Sixty years later, James Watt added a separate condenser and dropped fuel consumption by roughly seventy-five percent. By 1800 Britain had over two thousand five hundred of these things running.
That’s it. That’s the moment. Not because Newcomen and Watt were smarter than Hero. Because they had cheap coal under their feet, and the cleverness humans had been accumulating for two millennia finally had an obstacle to crush.
Once the energy was cheap, everything that had been waiting got built......
The difference is two centuries of compounding civilisational change.
