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Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Profound Political Disunity Is Now Pitting Rising Elites Against Fading Elites

Mark G. provides the analytic structure needed to understand why both parties are coming apart at the seams:
What Kotkin describes here is best characterized as a civil war among Democratic Party Elites. This parallels a similar struggle taking place inside the GOP between the 'GOP Establishment' and probably 70% of the GOP's electoral base.
(Excerpt from Kotkin:) "The rising tech oligarchy, having disrupted everything from hotels and taxis to banking, music and travel, is also taking over the content side of the media business. In the process, we might see the future decline of traditional media, including both news and entertainment, and a huge shift in media power away from both Hollywood and New York and toward the Bay Area and Seattle."
(Mark G.:) I think the most important finding from the present political cycle is the evidence of rapidly rising factionalism and infighting among our 0.01%'ers. Their ships are not "all sailing in the same direction," as Don Lucchesi said in Godfather III. Their goals are becoming very divergent indeed to the point of directly opposing each other.
Contrary to received MSM wisdom, this warfare appears to be most pronounced at present inside the Democratic Party. Bernie Sanders is clearly the AFL-CIO's man in a sense, along with the aged New Left. And he's drawing crowds to match. Like Bill, Hillary is the creature of Wall Street, NYC-based Mainstream Media, Hollywood and the Government Educational complex. The Tech Oligarchs really don't have a candidate of their own in the field this cycle.
Meanwhile the "GOP Establishment" is increasingly at open war with its own electoral base. So is the Democratic Party under the aegis of the digital 'Tech Oligarchs.' The older 'Mainframe' Democratic elites were far more attentive to middle class interests in their political coalition. The Tech Oligarchs are displaying a streak of Libertarian "My Way Or The Highway" rawness where it comes to political issues and the interests of nominal coalition partners.
I think The Donald could easily be found possessing support from some surprising quarters when the time comes………..
For further evidence of the fault lines shattering the Democratic Party consider Who Turned My Blue State Red? Why poor areas vote for politicians who want to slash the safety net.
Perhaps we can summarize this as the resentment of the remaining middle class/working class for free-riders who are living as well or better than the heavily burdened workers supporting their guaranteed income.
Game theory has shown that participants will choose to punish cheaters over skimming rewards, until the cheaters are in the majority. At that point, everyone converts to cheating/free-riding and the system collapses.
This rising sense of injustice applies to three classes: the super-wealthy skimmers who buy political influence; protected state workers drawing benefits that are distant memories for 99% of private-sector workers, and the free-riders at the bottom buying groceries with SNAP cards and non-food items with wads of cash earned without the burdens of taxes.
So we have two volatile brews being mixed together: the anger and resentment of what's left of the middle and working classes against those above and below them, and the widening political disunity of the Elites.
All those Democratic Party stalwarts whose power base is being disrupted by digital forces beyond their control are not happy campers. Unfortunately for them, history can't be turned back.
As for the Republicans, the party's long reliance on social polarization for its support is wearing thin, as thin as the wallets and purses of traditional Republican audiences.
What's upending the existing political Elites is this: there's no free lunch. As the phantom free lunch of the past seven years is shattered by economic realities, the parties' fiefdoms are discovering there isn't enough money for all fiefdoms to expand as they have for 60 years.
As a result, each fiefdom is forced to battle other Elites for increasingly scarce financial and political oxygen.
The American Power Elite may yet discover that throw the bums out applies to all existing Establishment parties and Elites.

The Good Ol' Days: When Tax Rates Were 90 Percent

Bernie Sanders noted that “When radical, socialist Dwight D. Eisenhower was president, I think the highest marginal tax rate was something like 90 percent.” Paul Krugman said the same thing as did Michael Moore in his film Capitalism: A Love Story and you’ll see this factoid repeated on countless memes floating around the Internet.However, what a tax rate is and what is actually paid are two very different things. Indeed, in 1955, the only people paying 90 percent (actually 91 percent) were those making over $3,425,766 when adjusted for inflation. And these are marginal rates, so they only paid that on any earnings above that threshold…….
Regardless, the simple fact is that the rich never paid 90 percent of their income in taxes or anything even remotely close to that. Unfortunately though, some memes die hard.

The NATO-ISIS connection - in Turkey

The NATO-ISIS connection
Just happens to be Turkey:
A senior Western official familiar with a large cache of intelligence obtained this summer from a major raid on an ISIS safehouse told the Guardian that “direct dealings between Turkish officials and ranking ISIS members was now ‘undeniable.’”

The same official confirmed that Turkey, a longstanding member of NATO, is not just supporting ISIS, but also other jihadist groups, including Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. “The distinctions they draw [with other opposition groups] are thin indeed,” said the official. “There is no doubt at all that they militarily cooperate with both.”

In a rare insight into this brazen state-sponsorship of ISIS, a year ago Newsweek reported the testimony of a former ISIS communications technician, who had travelled to Syria to fight the regime of Bashir al-Assad.

The former ISIS fighter told Newsweek that Turkey was allowing ISIS trucks from Raqqa to cross the “border, through Turkey and then back across the border to attack Syrian Kurds in the city of Serekaniye in northern Syria in February.” ISIS militants would freely travel “through Turkey in a convoy of trucks,” and stop “at safehouses along the way.”

The former ISIS communication technician also admitted that he would routinely “connect ISIS field captains and commanders from Syria with people in Turkey on innumerable occasions,” adding that “the people they talked to were Turkish officials… ISIS commanders told us to fear nothing at all because there was full cooperation with the Turks.”

In January, authenticated official documents of the Turkish military were leaked online, showing that Turkey’s intelligence services had been caught in Adana by military officers transporting missiles, mortars and anti-aircraft ammunition via truck “to the al-Qaeda terror organisation” in Syria.

According to other ISIS suspects facing trial in Turkey, the Turkish national military intelligence organization (MIT) had begun smuggling arms, including NATO weapons to jihadist groups in Syria as early as 2011.

The allegations have been corroborated by a prosecutor and court testimony of Turkish military police officers, who confirmed that Turkish intelligence was delivering arms to Syrian jihadists from 2013 to 2014.

Documents leaked in September 2014 showed that Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan had financed weapons shipments to ISIS through Turkey. A clandestine plane from Germany delivered arms in the Etimesgut airport in Turkey and split into three containers, two of which were dispatched to ISIS.

A report by the Turkish Statistics Institute confirmed that the government had provided at least $1 million in arms to Syrian rebels within that period, contradicting official denials. Weapons included grenades, heavy artillery, anti-aircraft guns, firearms, ammunition, hunting rifles and other weapons?—?but the Institute declined to identify the specific groups receiving the shipments.

Information of that nature emerged separately. Just two months ago, Turkish police raided a news outlet that published revelations on how the local customs director had approved weapons shipments from Turkey to ISIS.

Turkey has also played a key role in facilitating the life-blood of ISIS’ expansion: black market oil sales. Senior political and intelligence sources in Turkey and Iraq confirm that Turkish authorities have actively facilitated ISIS oil sales through the country.

Last summer, Mehmet Ali Ediboglu, an MP from the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party, estimated the quantity of ISIS oil sales in Turkey at about $800 million?—?that was over a year ago.

By now, this implies that Turkey has facilitated over $1 billion worth of black market ISIS oil sales to date.

Both NATO and the EU should probably rethink their strategy of building closer relationships with the Turk. No doubt the neocons are slavering at the thought of using Turkey as a means of furthering their desired conflict with Russia, but considering how far agley their plans tend to go, that will probably end with Russia in possession of the warm water seaport it has always wanted.

It shouldn't surprise anyone that Turkey is taking the side of ISIS. In the end, it is always the Dar al-Islam against the Dar al-Harb.


Adios, EU. Or more accurately, to the dustbin of history where you belong with every other failed fascist empire:

The nations rise
Adios, EU. Or more accurately, to the dustbin of history where you belong with every other failed fascist empire:
Just weeks into taking power, the new Polish government is making itself felt in making small but heavily symbolic changes to the daily order of business. Having already torn up the previous government’s commitment to take thousands of migrants from the European Union (EU) as part of the continent-wide resettlement programme, Poland is now making tentative steps to remove visible signs of EU influence from public life.

Under the last government, flags displayed at government events including press conferences were equally split between the Polish national, and the European Union. It was all change at Tuesday’s press conference with new Prime Minister Beata Szydlo, who appeared at her podium with Polish flags only.

 The new foreign minister Witold Waszczykowski has quickly become one of the most vocal elected politicians in Europe on the matter of mass migration in the few days he has held his post. Speaking to the BBC, he slammed migrants for masquerading as refugees while in Europe, which he said they were not and in doing so were violating international law. Mr. Waszczykowski also stood by the comments of a party colleague who said migrants brought diseases and parasites into Europe, when pressed by the BBC to condemn them. Citing his experience with Arab countries, Mr. Waszczykowski said: “Such a large, uncontrolled migration may cause problems for the life of Europe”.
Between Russia, Hungary, and Poland, we are seeing the rise of Eastern Europe and the decline of the West. What this may serve to demonstrate over time is the signal importance of ethnic solidarity and how it is actually more powerful than the ideology of communism, capitalism, or "democratic liberalism".

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

History never ended - (Yet we and our leaders act as if it had!)

If forced to choose between Muslims and Nazis, which would you choose? Thanks to the multiculturalists, abstaining is not an option. Those are the only two choices. The Germans are already clear about their preferences:
Germany security guards at the main government office for refugees in Berlin have reportedly been caught on camera using openly Nazi language.

Bild newspaper has released video footage in which it alleges the guards call for asylum-seekers to be put in concentration camps.

One recording purports to show a uniformed security guard speaking of getting “swastikas in my eyes”.

“In two years, there will be a revolution here and there will be no more of all this s***. We’ll clean it all out,” the guard, who has not been named, appears to say.

“We have plenty of summer camps, and I swear to you they can be used again. On the gate: work makes you free,” he says.
There used to be Muslims in Spain too. For 700 years. And then there weren't. So it's rather amusing for the historically literate to hear the multiculturalists insisting that diversity is forever. I mean, how do they think those ethnically homogeneous nations came about in the first place, evolution?

The amount of blood that is going to be on the hands of the multiculturalists is going to be absolutely astonishing. The anti-fascists and multiculturalists and diversity advocates are creating more Nazis around the world than Hitler ever did.

And no amount of name-calling is going to dissuade them. If the deportations do not begin soon, the death camps will become inevitable. That's how it works. That is how it has always worked, going back to Assyria, Carthage, and Rome. There are now two options: elect the nationalists or deal with the revolutionary ultranationalists.

History never ended.


WWIII: the second shot

The Paris attacks was the first shot being fired. The downing of a Russian SU-24 by NATO is the second. I have no doubt that the USA will frantically protest that Turkey, not NATO, is responsible, but when Putin responds, the USA will be treaty-bound to defend Turkey. This is why the Founding Fathers warned against "entangling alliances", as they tend to outsource one's diplomatic and wartime decision-making at the very worst possible times.
A Russian Su-24 fighter has been shot down in Syria, Russian Defense Ministry said, adding the plane hadn’t violated Turkish airspace and was at an altitude of 6,000 meters.
If you haven't read much about the leadup to past world wars, what you should understand is that they never look like anything out of the ordinary at first. However, unlike the previous world wars, this looks like one that will genuinely span the globe, as the jihadists have been permitted to infiltrate every country and nation, from China to Iceland, while China is poised to not only invade Taiwan, but claim the entire South China Sea and spread out across Africa.

About the only place we can expect to escape the global conflict is South America, as La Raza Cósmica is more vicious and more capable than the mujahideen while simultaneously being devoid of any semblance of white guilt or mercy. The jihadists wouldn't last five minutes against the cartels.

As Nicolas Taleb has observed, the one place the immigrants have failed to find any footing in Italy is where the mafias rule.

This doesn't mean that Russia and the USA are going to start shooting at each other immediately, it merely means that another domino has fallen.

UPDATE: All right, this may be more than just another domino falling. I doubt that Putin will fail to respond to this sort of behavior by the Turks:
Turkmen forces in Syria shot dead the two pilots of a Russian jet downed by Turkish warplanes near the border with Turkey on Tuesday as they descended with parachutes, a deputy commander of a Turkmen brigade told reporters.

"Both of the pilots were retrieved dead. Our comrades opened fire into the air and they died in the air," Alpaslan Celik, a deputy commander in a Syrian Turkmen brigade said near the Syrian village of Yamadi as he held what he said was a piece of a pilot's parachute. 
UPDATE II: The news just keeps getting worse. It looks like we know who is supporting ISIS and who is not.
Russian helicopter SHOT DOWN while searching for downed jet
UPDATE III: Putin's response: "A stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorism."
    “The loss today is a stab in the back, carried out by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t describe it in any other way.”

    “Our aircraft was downed over the territory of Syria, using air-to-air missile from a Turkish F-16. It fell on the Syrian territory 4km from Turkey.”

    “Neither our pilots nor our jet threatened the territory of Turkey.”

    “Today’s tragic event will have significant consequences, including for Russia-Turkish relations ... Instead of immediately getting in contact with us, as far as we know, the Turkish side immediately turned to their partners from Nato to discuss this incident, as if we shot down their plane and not they ours.”

    “Do they want to make Nato serve ISIS? ... We hope that the international community will find the strength to come together and fight against the common evil.”

UPDATE IV: Yeah, I'll bet Erdogan called an emergency meeting.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan has called an emergency security meeting involving his top generals, heads of intelligence, Prime Minister DavutoÄŸlu and other senior ministers.


Top Christian voice uncorks on liars in media, politics - Ravi Zacharias: 'They're trading in lives for their power'

While countries like Britain, Germany, Sweden and Belgium appear to have made their choices of what path to follow, the quest for answers still haunts, says Zacharias.
“In one Middle Eastern country, an awful thing happened. Two young Muslims turned atheists were on a program. They argued for the reality that blood had been spilled across the centuries and that there was no denying that from its earliest days to the present, this was the same blood-letting in the name of the belief as originally given and carried out. Then one of them asked the cleric a question that was as pointed as could be. It was a powerful question with an irrefutable fact within the question. The question laid bare a reality that was deemed blasphemous. The next day that man and his family were murdered, just for asking a fact-laden question that was unanswerable without conceding the truth. For that, he and his family paid with their lives.
“That’s the depravity of our age. It is death to ask the pointed question because the answer, if true, betrays the real truth. The masquerade is on and it is deadly. We watch hundreds die. We hear speeches full of distortions; we tolerate deceit and even reward it. Some in power and in the public eye whitewash the reality while the blood of the murdered cries out from the ground. Our children and grandchildren will inherit the whirlwind because our media pundits and misguided speech-makers have sown to the wind by trading in lives for their power.”
Zacharias says there is hope even in the midst of the reigning lie.
“The lie has a shelf life. The truth abides forever,” he said. “God can even conquer through our perversion.”