In this comprehensive interview that Neil Howe – Saeculum Research, he wastes no time in telling us that he thinks expectations of several more Fed rate raises this year are “delusional,” because – did with his firm,
As John Mauldin annotates, Neil doesn’t stop there. He reminds us that At this point, the interviewer chirps in with “You sound a bit more downbeat than most.” Well, says Neil,
If I’m coming in beneath the consensus forecast, it’s because – over the last decade –
[T]here do arise periods lasting ten years or more when the consensus forecast can veer consistently too high or too low. And over the last decade, it has veered too high. Each year since about 2005, forecasters have been predicting a rise in corporate earnings, in GDP, in inflation, in interest rates—in basically all of the vital growth metrics – that is substantially higher than what subsequently occurred.
Systematic overshooting by international institutions is leading some observers to talk about
Which leads the interviewer to quip, “I guess we can’t call it the dismal science anymore,” and to wonder at the reasons for the chronic boosterism. “Oh, I know why it’s happening, says Neil,
We are seeing slower demographic growth, overleveraging, a productivity slowdown, institutional distrust, policy gridlock, and geopolitical drift. But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal.