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Researchers based the
simulation on realistic data on current nuclear war plans
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The war would start with
tactical strikes but end up with attacks on key cities
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It predicts that 90
million people would be killed or injured before fallout effects
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The team hopes that the
model will highlight the consequences of nuclear war
Researchers have
developed a terrifying simulation that shows how an escalating nuclear war
between the United States/NATO and Russia would play out.
The model — based on realistic data on nuclear force postures, targets
and causality estimates — predicts that 34.1 million people would die within
hours.
The catastrophic conflict would leave another 55.9 million injured —
figures which do not include subsequent deaths from nuclear fallout and other
effects.
In the first three hours alone, Europe would be devastated and an
estimated 2.6 million people would be either killed or injured.
The following 90 minutes would see key cities in both the US and Russia
hit with 5–10 nuclear bombs each, leaving another 88.7 million dead or injured.
Many countries in the model appear to escape being the direct target of
a nuke — such as those in the southern hemisphere, and Scotland.
However, the effects of the nuclear fallout and longer-term impacts on
the Earth's climate, population and food production would have wide-ranging
effects.
The team behind the video hope that the simulation will highlight the
apocalyptic consequences and cost to humanity of nuclear war between the
two blocs.
·
Researchers have developed a
terrifying simulation that shows how an escalating nuclear war between the
United States/NATO and Russia would play out
WHAT IS THE IMPACT
OF A NUCLEAR BOMB?
A nuke's
impact would depend on factors like the weather, weapon design and the blast
zone's nature.
About
35 per cent of the bomb's energy would be released as heat.
Flash
blindness from a 1 megaton nuke could be triggered up to 13 miles away on
a clear day and 50 on a clear night.
Those
within a 5-mile-radius would receive third degree burns.
The
blast of air pressure generated would destroy nearby buildings.
Winds
of up to 158 mph would affect people up to 3.7 miles away, causing objects to
fly around.
Source: AsapSCIENCE
The four-minute video was created by engineering and international
affairs expert Alex Glaser of Princeton University and colleagues.
The simulation, dubbed 'Plan A', was drawn up based on various
independent assessments of current US and Russian military postures, nuclear
war plans and corresponding weapons targets.
It included extensive data on the number of nuclear weapons currently deployed,
bomb yields and the order in which such a war would likely progress.
A nuclear war would likely evolve from an initial phase of tactical
targeting through to a strategic period intended to take out each side's
offensive nuclear capacity.
Finally, a phase of targeting key cities to impede opposition recovery
would begin.
'It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead
and injured within the first few hours of the conflict,' the researchers wrote.
HOW WOULD THE WAR
PROGRESS?
The
simulation begins with a conventional, non-nuclear conflict.
Russia
fires a nuclear warning shot from a base on the Black Sea, with the aim of
halting a US–NATO advance.
In
response, NATO hits Russia with a single tactical nuclear air strike.
After
this, the conflict escalates thus:
PHASE
1: Tactical Targeting
Russia
hits NATO bases/troops with 300 nukes.
NATO
responds with 180 nukes.
2.6
million casualties in three hours.
PHASE
2: Strategic Targeting
Each
side strives to take out the other's offensive nuclear capacity.
In
45 minutes, 3.4 million casualties result.
PHASE
3: Key City Targeting
Both
sides fire 5–10 nukes at the opposition's 30 most populated cities or economic
centres.
This
causes 85.3 million deaths and injuries in 45 minutes.
TOTAL
FATALITIES: 34.1 MILLION
The simulation begins within the context of a conventional,
non-nuclear conflict.
In the scenario, Russia fires a nuclear warning shot from a base near
Kaliningrad, on the Black Sea, with the aim of halting a US–NATO advance.
In response, NATO hits Russia with a single tactical nuclear air strike,
from which the conflict escalates to a tactical nuclear war across Europe.
At this point, the simulation anticipates that Russia would deliver
around 300 nuclear warheads — carried either by aircraft or short-range
missiles — against NATO bases and advancing troops.
The international military alliance would then respond with around 180
aircraft-borne nukes.
At this stage, casualties would be expected to reach around 2.6 million
people within a three-hour period and Europe is left essentially destroyed.
Following this, NATO acts from the continental US and nuclear submarine
fleets, launching a strategic nuclear strike of around 600 warheads with the
aim of taking out Russia's nuclear capability.
Before this strike hits, Russia launches nukes from its complement of
missile silos, submarines and mobile launch pads.
The model projects 3.4 million
casualties from this phase of the war, which would last only 45 minutes.
+6
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The catastrophic conflict would leave another 55.9 million
injured — figures which do not include subsequent deaths from nuclear fallout
and other effects
In the final phase of the conflict, both sides take aim at each other's
30 most populated cities and economic centres — deploying 5–10 nukes for each
one — to attempt to inhibit each side's recovery from the war.
Such a move, the researchers conclude, would see 85.3 million casualties
within the space of 45 minutes.
The total number of
immediate fatalities in this scenario would exceed 34.1 million people — and
does not include the subsequent deaths that would invariably result as a
consequence of nuclear fallout and other related long-term effects.
WHICH WOULD BE THE
FIRST FIVE CITIES TARGETED IN THE FINAL PHASE OF THE NUCLEAR WAR?
In the final phase of
the conflict, both sides would take aim at each other's 30 most populated
cities and economic centres — deploying 5–10 nukes for each one — to attempt to
inhibit each side's recovery from the war.
Such a move, the
researchers conclude, would see 85.3 million casualties within the space of 45
minutes.
The first five cities
on either side to be targeted would include:
TARGET
CITIES IN THE US
New
York
Indianapolis,
Indiana
Washington,
DC
San
Diego, California
Austin,
Texas
TARGET CITIES IN RUSSIA
Saint
Petersburg
Izhevsk
Krasnodar
Tolyatti
Krasnoyarsk
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The team behind the video hope
that the simulation will highlight the apocalyptic consequences and cost to
humanity of nuclear war between the two blocs
·
In the final phase of the conflict, the simulation suggests
that both sides would take aim at each other's 30 most populated cities and
economic centres — deploying 5–10 nukes for each one — to attempt to inhibit
each side's recovery, as depicted in this artist's impression
The researchers said that the project is intended to highlight the
potentially devastating consequences of the current nuclear war plans
maintained by the US and Russian military forces.
'The risk of nuclear war has increased
dramatically in the past two years,' the researchers wrote.
'The United States and Russia have
abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to develop new
kinds of nuclear weapons and expanded the circumstances in which they might use
nuclear weapons.'
HOW TO SURVIVE A
NUCLEAR BOMB
Experts have detailed
a number of tips to improve your chances of survival in the event of a nuclear
disaster, including:
Pack an emergency
supply kit containing water and non-perishable food items.
When a nuclear bomb
goes off, it sends out radiation that can ruin your mobile phone and laptop, so
preparing battery-powered radios for communication is wise.
For the blast, it is
important to get as much concrete between you and the blast as possible.
For the fall-out it's
important to have thick walls and a thick roof, he says, and in a house it is a
good idea to blockade all the windows.
6
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Scientists have devised the Svalbard Global Seed Vault
(pictured) as a way to protect the world's food supply in the event of a global
disaster. It's located in Norway
But if you are
outside and know the blast is coming, you might have time to get to a better
shelter.
First you should get
on the ground with your hands behind your head and brace yourself for the
blast.
Never look at the
blast, because it can cause you to go blind temporarily.
The, after the blast,
you have 30 minutes to get to the best place.
Once you get inside
remove your clothes and clean yourself straight away and blow your nose, to
stop the radioactive materials from spreading, and do not use conditioner.
If you cannot have a shower, wipe
yourself with a wet cloth.
