Sunday, July 16, 2017

Vox Popoli: Regression to the mean

Regression to the mean
This is the statistical reality that will always confound the civic nationalists and their ideals of uplift. Iron Spartan comments concerning a couple with whom he is acquainted.

There are a pair of black doctors married to each other at a local hospital. They have two sons and a daughter. With every advantage normally associated with whites, one son failed out of high school, (which is an achievement on its own in the current education environment) went to prison for stealing cars and breaking into houses shortly after his 18th birthday, the other son made it into college and failed out by midterms, and the daughter has two kids by different daddies before she turned 18.

It doesn't matter how well you train the cat to fetch or teach the dog to use the litter box. Their kittens and puppies are naturally going to revert to what is normal behavior for their kind if they are not subjected to exactly the same training by external forces that their parents were. It is one of the great ironies of the Civil Rights movement that racism, segregation, and the continuous repression of the black minority may have been the primary contributor to keeping the black family together in the USA.

Conservatives always like to blame the Great Society for the demise of the black family, but the reality is that the influence of its perverse incentives were relatively limited. It appears that the most destructive aspect of the Great Society, in this particular regard, is that it permitted African-Americans to return to the dyscivilizational social arrangments historically preferred in African culture.

Every race has its exceptional individuals. Every race has statistical aberrations who should not be judged by the general stereotypes and averages. But societal policies that are made on the basis of exceptions and aberrations are almost guaranteed to be disastrous, whether the outliers are to the right or the left side of the Bell Curve.