Saturday, May 14, 2022

Understand This About Karl Denninger

 Folks, understand one thing about the US getting involved in an actual shooting war with anyone.

You immediately will have no semi-conductor anything, zero lithium batteries for anything at all from electric cars to cellphones, 75% or better of the pharmaceuticals in common use will disappear instantly, finding tires will be nearly impossible, automotive and machine parts, specifically wear parts such as bearings will all become unobtanium and more.  Even something as simple as a circuit breaker for your house will not be able to be sourced.  ALL of the large transformers used to distribute electrical power in the United States, never mind nearly all of the switchgear, are made overseas in whole or part and thus if they fail, whether due to natural or man-made cause they cannot be replaced in such an event either.    Within a few months spares for critical parts that are considered wear items and thus must be replaced on a schedule will run out in our energy generation and distribution system and failures will begin to occur with impact from local areas to entire regions.

Your local gas station and supermarket cash register (never mind most modern refrigerators, HVAC systems and similar) all have chips in them that are only made overseas; there is no replacement available made in the United States.  Your much-vaunted heat pump that is so "green" has a defrost control board in it without which it will not function -- if you bypass it (which you can in some cases) once the temperatures get below about 40 degrees outside the unit will fail or be destroyed without it, and there won't be a replacement available at any cost.  Even the contactor (relay) in that outdoor unit has no US supply and without it the unit doesn't work.  Your gas furnace has an ignitor and control board without which you have no heat, they do fail and, again, there is no US supply.  We did this to ourselves with our decades-long stupidity offshoring everything and by doing so made it possible for any nation that can sink even a single container ship to break the United States economy and perhaps even a few million people's survival within minutes.

Commercial shipping will go to zero basically immediately as anything that floats and is big is easy to sink and without insurance, which nobody will write, nobody will ship anything because someone is going to eat the entire cost if the ship ends up on the bottom of the ocean and there is nobody in their right mind who will take that risk.

This is the crazy of international supply chains when there is no substitution here at home available in the size required.  It all depends on everything being "peaceful" -- both economically and militarily.  You can go shoot goat herders without impacting that but the minute hostilities break out with someone that has actual reach into shipping lanes you must expect them to spend one conventional torpedo costing a few tens of thousands of dollars and once they do anything and everything headed your way stops.

Container ships are trivially easy to send down to see Davey Jones; they're huge, they're lightly crewed which means no serious amount of damage control is available and they're certainly not built and fitted out to survive in a wartime environment.

Yeah, I know, you're sure it won't happen.

Better hope you're right if you're dependent on medications, as just one example.

Perhaps we should be re-thinking our ideas about sending tens of billions of dollars worth of "stuff" to another nation -- an amount that exceeds their entire military spending for the last year, never mind "admitting more new nations into NATO."