Sunday, October 29, 2023

SITREP 10/27/23: Ukraine's Prospects Dim as Russian Gains Grow - SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER

 There are several important Russian breakthroughs in Avdeevka, which are now being bitterly confirmed by Ukrainian sources. It’s now without doubt that both sides have gone “all in” and Avdeevka has in fact become the de facto central battlefield to define the latter part of this year.

Before I wasn’t certain whether Avdeevka may just be a ruse or misdirection from Russian command, or perhaps even a ‘testing of the waters’ just to see if it’s worth committing a large force there, sort of how Ugledar was in early 2023. They never meant Ugledar to be a massive “all in” committed operation, unless the early tests proved that Ukrainian defenses there were weak.

But here, it has become clear that Russia has gone all in and will not stop until it’s captured, no matter how stiff the Ukrainian defense is. In short, Avdeevka is set to become the new Mariupol, Lisichansk-Severodonetsk, and Bakhmut.

But some have correctly pointed out that there’s actually another, more distant battle which Avdeevka resembles much more closely. That of 2015’s Debaltsevo—famed for its unprecedented defeat of Ukraine’s JFO/ATO troops in what became one of the first big ‘cauldrons’ which placed the term on the map for a new generation of would-be armchair generals and war historians..................

......The Russian channel Vozhak Z who has been updating from the front writes another detailed post. By the way, it turns out this fighter is actually an award winning Russian writer named Dmitry Fillipov, who volunteered for the SMO.

Now he fights in the southern quarters of the ‘Royal Hunt’ section of Avdeevka. From today:


There was a thick fog from the very morning and all day. At 50 meters you can no longer see anything. The weather gave us all a break. There was a calm in our area, so unusual that it was a little annoying.

For two weeks in a row, even going to the toilet was an adventure, but then you go out into the street - and there is silence... Only in the north did heavy art continue to work somewhere in the Koksokhim area.

Today was time to think about everything that was happening. Objectively, the situation is such that from the north the railway is in a gray zone. Delivery of BC through it is impossible. The road through Lastochkino is under our fire control.

I think we'll get them. It is already clear to everyone that we will not stop. This is clear to us. This is clear to the enemy. They still have enough strength, the battle will be difficult, but deep down the crests already know that they will lose Avdeevka. And we know that they will not give up, they will not leave on their own. Therefore, we will encircle them and kill everyone who resists. And they will kill us as much as they can. This is how this war goes.

Do I feel sorry for them? No. They killed and injured my friends, they want to kill me every day. I don't feel sorry for them. Although, for the most part, the people who stand against us are not rabid Nazis, but ordinary Hataskrayniks who were forcibly driven to slaughter.

But if you look at everything in its entirety, it was they who brought Ukraine to its current state. That same silent majority who don’t care about Bandera, or the Russians, or the USA - as long as their farm, kindergarten, pigs are not touched, as long as they don’t run out of vodka and lard, and at least the grass doesn’t grow.

They didn’t care about the Maidan, about the shelling of Donetsk and Lugansk, about the genocide of the Russian population, about the murders of children, women and the elderly, about Azov’s torture, about language bans, about the split in faith... And then it turned out that they couldn’t sit it out that you have to take a machine gun and die for the interests and goals of NATO.

And then they hated us, with a fierce, terrible hatred. Because their little farmstead world collapsed. Because this war reminds them every day of their cowardice, weakness and silence. And in their anger they blame us for everything, because they are afraid to look in the mirror and ask themselves uncomfortable questions.

And we, of course, will win. We know that. And they know it. And this makes them hate us even more.

My call sign is Leader!

Victory will be ours!

PS. Frequency 149.200, call Volga, you will stay alive. Otherwise, we will come and kill everyone who holds weapons in their hands......................

...................... I recommend for everyone to read the very detailed piece. However, I’ll pull from this good Twitter thread on the article which summarizes the best points:

No matter how bad you might think the situation is with the United States and key munitions for the US, Israel and Ukraine... it is actually worse. Much worse. Stock valuations trump national defense. It isn't even close. And it is not being fixed.

As explored in the linked analysis - which is very much worth reading - in the fat and happy days since the fall of the Soviet Union, the Pentagon and US government have allowed Wall Street and Wall Street practices to take over defense manufacturing.

And why not? It isn't as if the US was ever going to fight a peer war again, right? In the meantime, money talks. Wall Street does not maximize wealth by maximizing economic output, or quality, or innovation, or any of those quaint factors. The real money is made through oligopolies and "moat" construction. Limit competition. Get down to one or two big players. Have a "moat" which prevents the entry of new competitors. Then gouge the customers to create a high and growing cash flow, that never stops, because of lack of competition

Unfortunately, if the customer is US National Security, that means we are all in very bad shape - as we are. The Pentagon is talking about increasing arms production. They haven't yet, not even 1.5 years after the invasion of Ukraine. It's a complicated process - because genuinely boosting national security conflicts with cash flow maximization for Wall Street. High profits mean ruthless cost cutting. Shut down all production lines that don't have a current contract. Make no effort to maintain machinery or labor - that would waste money.

Through monopoly or oligopoly pricing make the US pay through the nose if any more ammunition or vital missiles are to be made. And a non-trivial point - the entire US defense industry is in the hands of multinational oligopolies. They have defense interests on multiple continents. They have to consider all factors. And the Pentagon and Congress, the MIC, have absolutely no problem with this situation. The MIC was never set up to maximize national security - what a quaint and naive idea! If you've been doing this your whole career - what's the big rush to change things?

The world is on fire. That is irrelevant from a Wall Street and MIC viewpoint. It simply doesn't matter - until the entire world changes because of it.

In short, the U.S. economy has been parasitized by Wall Street, and it’s nearly impossible to be competitive or get anything done anymore, between the vast financializations and endless capitalizations of everything, and the impenetrable bureaucracies that have sprouted up as guardians of this esoteric science.

Ironically enough, several MSM majors have noted this week that Biden’s team is looking for a big ‘rebrand’ on Ukraine aid, particularly now that the House has gotten a new Speaker and things could potentially move forward prior to end of the year shut downs.

Read the sub-headline above. The new narrative shift will be to push the angle that continuing the Ukraine war will be a boost to U.S. jobs, manufacturing, and the economy as a whole.

And like clockwork, as soon as this narrative shift was sussed out, the talking heads on Capitol Hill have already begun monotoning it out, like Mitch the Glitch McConnell here:

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