Only forty-some years ago, "climate
science" suddenly turned from advancing a theory of global cooling to one
of global warming. A 123-page paper by Christopher Booker,
published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), explains this sudden
change in terms of a "groupthink" belief system formulated and
perpetuated by a few strong personalities. Through key positions,
and with sympathetic lobbyist groups, the theory overwhelmed politics during
its formative years in the 1970s from its center in various United Nations
agencies until its unraveling began in the late 1990s.
The first of those personalities was Swedish meteorologist
Professor Bert Bolin (1925-2007), who believed that increasing
atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide from industrialization would inevitably
lead to global warming. Bolin presented his views in 1979 at a
first-ever meeting of the "World Climate Conference," sponsored by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The WMO is a
191-member-country agency of the United Nations (U.N.), headquartered in
Geneva, Switzerland.
Bolin had developed his theory in the 1950s during thirty-five
years of declining temperatures. Through the 1970s, many scientists,
activists, and policymakers had voiced alarm at global
cooling. A common view was that the cooling effect of more dust
in the atmosphere, from volcanoes and industrial smokestacks, more than
offset the warming effects of carbon dioxide and might require dire
policies, such as those proposed by Dr. Arnold Reitze, to include banning the
internal combustion engine, regulating industrial research and development, and
limiting population.
Six years later, Bolin presented a longer paper for a 1985
conference in Villach, Austria, in which he concluded that "human-induced
climate change" called for urgent action at the "highest
level." An attendee who became convinced was Dr. John
Houghton, a former professor of atmospheric physics at Oxford, who had been
head of the U.K. MET since 1983, was founder of the Hadley
Centre in 1990, and would be the lead editor of the first three reports
(1990, 1996, and 2001) of the International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC). The IPCC was established in 1988 by two U.N. agencies, the
WMO and the United Nations Environment Program. UNEP was founded
in 1972 by Maurice Strong, its first director, as a result of
the U.N. Conference on the Human Environment held in June,
1972.
Strong was a Canadian self-made billionaire in the
energy business, who once self-identified as a "socialist in ideology, a
capitalist in methodology." He became greatly involved in U.N.
activities and influenced the Stockholm Conference through a 1971 report
he commissioned on "the state of the planet," a summary of the
findings of 152 "leading experts from 58 countries." A December
2015 Breitbart article described Strong as a "totalitarian control
freak" for his expressed desire to deny national sovereignty to achieve
"global environmental co-operation" through the transformation of the
U.N. into a world government. (Strong later co-founded the Chicago
Climate Exchange.)
The IPCC originally represented 34 nations, with Bolin its first
chairman and Houghton chairing "Working Group I," charged with
contributing the climate change section of a first "assessment
report." Houghton himself wrote the summary of that
report, which cited computer models indicating that global temperatures would
increase "up to 0.5 degrees Celsius" per decade, despite only a
0.6-degree increase the previous 100 years. In contrast, the text of
the long report was reserved and underscored underlying
uncertainty. The summary was designed to raise concerns, in
anticipation of the 1992 "Earth Summit" in Rio, being organized by
Strong. The "summit" added to political momentum and was
attended by 108 world leaders, some 20,000 delegates, and an additional roughly
20,000 climate activists.
The only real proof of the scientific theory was computer models,
programmed to assume that increasing carbon dioxide was the most important
factor driving climate. One of those who objected to the
"predetermined" conclusions of such models was Dr. Richard Lindzen,
the Alfred P. Sloan professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. His 1992 paper pointed out that the models ignored
other important factors that would have had cooling effects – namely, water
vapor, cloud cover, and oceans. Lindzen also noted that global
temperatures had risen in the 1920s and 1930s, when carbon dioxide emissions
were comparatively low, but fell back between 1940 and the 1970s, when
emissions were rising much more steeply. He also concluded that the
models would have predicted a 20th-century warming four times more than
actually recorded. Some of Lindzen's criticisms are demonstrated in
the chart below, from NASA GISS data. One should note
that the GISS frequently "adjusts" its data to be consistent
with warming, so the data in the chart do not reflect those available to
Lindzen at the time.
Lindzen also focused on how an "illusion of a consensus"
had been used to dominate public debate by marginalizing credible scientists
who evaluated the same data and disagreed with the prevailing
conclusions. He described how influential interest groups had
fervently joined the cause of global warming, such as the Union of Concerned
Scientists (UCS), Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, and the World Wildlife Fund
(itself funded by Maurice Strong). Many of these had formerly
lobbied against nuclear weapons during the Cold War, which had just
ended. While the UCS submitted a petition to combat global warming,
only "three or four of them, according to Lindzen, were qualified climate
scientists." Frank Press, the president of the National Academy
of Sciences (NAS), stated
that "overt advocacy ... tended to delegitimize ... independent
advice on science and policy."
"Consensus" was furthered with an increase in federal
funding for climate research (beginning at 18 minutes) from $240
million annually, in 1989, to $1.5 billion, and to $10 billion over the next
twenty years. The IPCC's 1996 Second Assessment Report attempted to
consolidate consensus by 1) introducing verbiage in the summary that had not
appeared in a draft report reviewed by authors and 2) deleting 15 key
statements that had appeared in the reviewed draft. Former head of
the NAS Frederick Seitz stated in a Wall
Street Journal article that he had "never witnessed a more
disturbing corruption of the peer-review process ... to deceive policymakers
and the public into believing that scientific evidence shows that human
activities are causing global warming." Responsibility lay with
the lead author, Ben
Santer, associated with the climate Research Unit (CRU) at East Anglia
University.
The 1996 controversy was soon overwhelmed by the
some-10,000-person Kyoto Conference the following year, a seeming example of
consensus designed to continue the political momentum, and later preparation
for the 2009
U.N. Climate Change (Copenhagen) Conference. But the 2009
release of over 1,000 emails and 3,000 other documents from the CRU,
known ClimateGate,
further revealed the shakiness
of climate change theory and resulted in a weak, nonbinding "Copenhagen
Accord."
An especially controversial "Climategate" email by
Jonathan Overpeck complained that "we have to get rid of the Medieval Warm
Period." A long held conclusion had been that the so-called
Medieval Warm Period (c. 950-1250) was much warmer than the modern era,
appearing in the IPCC First Assessment report (chart below).
Seemingly on cue, in April 1998, an unknown young Ph.D., Michael
Mann, and two colleagues published
an article eliminating not only the Medieval Warm Period, but the
previous four-century-long "Little Ice Age." Known as the
"hockey stick" graph, it showed an unwavering downward line, until
sharply increasing in the late 20th century. When it appeared in the 2001
IPCC Third Assessment Report, Houghton himself appeared in front of a huge
blow-up of the "hockey stick" graph to assert that most of the
previous 50 years of warming was attributable to human
activities. The hockey stick was meant to be evidence supporting the
conclusions of the widely discredited models.
McIntyre
and McKitrick (2003) found that the Mann, et. al study 1) showed
temperatures only for the northern hemisphere, hence ignoring the rest of the
world, and more disturbingly 2) used "proxy" data in the form of tree
rings. "Almost the only tree rings ... which actually had a
hockey-stick shape had been one group of bristlecone pines in
California." But Mann's algorithm weighted the California
samples 390 times more than samples "from Arkansas, which failed to show a
'hockey stick' shape." Moreover, 3) in the IPCC report, the
temperatures for the last decades of the 20th century were from not tree
rings, but thermometer data, spliced onto the tree ring data. In
2006, a committee of the U.S. Congress commissioned
a report by Dr. Edward Wegman, an eminent statistician, that rebuked
Mann's methods as well as the wider peer review process.
While the "hockey stick" itself has fallen into
scientific disrepute, it still lingers in the public mind, supported by a 2006 National Academy of
Sciences report citing seven subsequent studies with similar
conclusions. However, all of those seven studies used
"reconstructed" data involving various kinds of proxies (ice cores,
tree rings, etc.) and "instrumental" records beginning in 1856,
weaknesses found in the Mann, et al. study. Moreover, many of the
authors and participants in these seven studies are the same ones cited in the
Wegman report, based on a "network analysis" such that
"independent reconstructions are not as independent as one might
guess" and that "there was too much reliance on peer review which was
not necessarily independent."
Much more is in this timely, informative, and non-technical
report from the GWPF, with its credible twenty-five-member scientific
Academic Advisory Council, including eighteen having the title of
"professor."
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/03/global_warming_the_evolution_of_a_hoax.html
