Thursday, September 28, 2023

The Last Stage of the US Experiment - Vox Popoli

 The Tree of Woe sees an American Eschaton:

In an ordinary year in an ordinary decade in an ordinary nation, the likelihood of Trump’s victory would be so high that the opposition would have trouble even raising funds.

But this is not an ordinary year, or an ordinary decade, or an ordinary nation, and so it’s not going to play out like that. We are the world’s leading empire and we’re near the end of our imperial lifespan. In 2025, the United States will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and the 249th anniversary of our founding. That puts us simultaneously at the end of both the “short” 80-year Strauss-Howe generational cycle and the “long” 250-year Turchin secular cycle and Glubb imperial cycle.

So how will the future go? I predict an American Eschaton: The end of America as we know it. It will be a Fourth Turning, but it will be a Fourth Turning that goes against us. The exact manner in which our eschaton will occur is much harder to predict. The end of America as we know it doesn’t necessarily mean nuclear apocalypse, government collapse, or secession. It could simply mean a transformation of America into something Unamerican.

That old prediction concerning 2033 is looking less and less crazy by the season.