Monday, March 22, 2021

Vox Popoli: Ending with a whimper

At this point, it appears apparent that the US empire is not going to end with applause, or with a Sicilian Expedition, but rather a quiet retreat from the South China Sea:

Last fall, the U.S. Air Force simulated a conflict set more than a decade in the future that began with a Chinese biological-weapon attack that swept through U.S. bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region. Then a major Chinese military exercise was used as cover for the deployment of a massive invasion force. The simulation culminated with Chinese missile strikes raining down on U.S. bases and warships in the region, and a lightning air and amphibious assault on the island of Taiwan.

The highly classified war game, which has not been previously made public, took place less than a year after the coronavirus, reportedly originating in a Chinese market, spread to the crew of the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, taking one of the U.S. Navy’s most significant assets out of commission.

Then in September in the midst of the war game, actual Chinese combat aircraft intentionally flew over the rarely crossed median line in the Taiwan Strait in the direction of Taipei an unprecedented 40 times and conducted simulated attacks on the island that Taiwan’s premier called “disturbing.” Amid those provocations, China’s air force released a video showing a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons carrying out a simulated attack on Andersen Air Force Base on the U.S. Pacific island of Guam. The title of the Hollywood-like propaganda video was “The god of war H-6K goes on the attack!”

In case the new U.S. administration failed to get the intended message behind all that provocative military activity, four days after President Biden took office, a large force of Chinese bombers and fighters flew past Taiwan and launched simulated missile attacks on the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group as it was sailing in international waters in the South China Sea.

Little wonder that many foreign affairs and national security experts believe the global pandemic has accelerated trends that were already pushing the United States and China toward a potential confrontation as the world’s leading status quo and rising power, respectively. This month the Council on Foreign Relations released a special report, “The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War,” which concluded that Taiwan “is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war” between the United States and China.... What many Americans don’t realize is that years of classified Pentagon war games strongly suggest that the U.S. military would lose that war.

The USA is not going to go to war over Taiwan. Not even the most gung-ho, pro-military Southern family with a military tradition has any interest in sending its sons to die for a breakaway province of the foremost regional power in the Pacific, and the US Navy already knows it has no more ability to prevent the annexation of Taiwan than the British Navy had to prevent the annexation of Austria in 1938. And certainly not with China Joe Biden as nominal Commander-in-Chief.

Moreover, the strategy utilized by the Blue Team in the wargame to successfully deter the Red Team required a considerable amount of equipment, tactics, and training that the US military does not have.

This doesn't mean war is out of the question in the near future. The foreign neoclown elite is still focused on making use of the US military to serve its purposes while it still can, which is why it is furiously trying to push wars in Syria, Iran, and Ukraine while completely ignoring Asia. And nothing could serve China's strategic objectives better than for the US military to be tied down with a conflict with a major regional power on a front in Europe or the Middle East, which is why the possibility of even the most pointless, idiotic, and strategically insane military action by the US military cannot be counted out at this point in time.