Tuesday, February 27, 2024

"You Are the Winners" - Vox Popoli

 Scott Adams finally and unambiguously concludes that even the fanciest analytics are trumped by a heuristic based on instinctive distrust.

“The anti-vaxxers are clearly the winners at this point, and I think it will stay that way. And I don’t want to put any shade on that whatsoever. They came out the best. They have the winning position. The unvaccinated have an advantage. Because they feel better. The thing they’re not worrying about is what I have to worry about. I wonder if that vaccination five years from now.

“Because really, I think the antivaxxers were just really distrustful of big companies and big government. That’s never wrong! It’s never wrong to distrust government. It’s never wrong to distrust big companies. So if you just took the position let’s just distrust everything the government did, well, you won!

“You won, you won completely – I did not end up in the right place. Agreed? You would all agree with that, right? I did not end up in the right place. The right place would be natural immunity, no vaccination. You should take that as a victory, and I should take defeat. We could agree on that, right? That my position is now the weakest, and your position has gone from the weakest to the strongest, and we can just say that’s true. The people who didn’t get vaxxed are absolutely in the winning position.

“You win. You win! You are the winners. You are the winners. Let me say that part with no ambiguity. You won. You won. All of my fancy analytics got me to a bad place. All of your heuristics – don’t trust these guys, it’s obvious – totally worked.”
– Scott Adams

It doesn’t really feel like winning, to be honest. But give Scott credit, as unlike most vaccinated individuals, he is willing to come out publicly and declare that he made the wrong decision, explain that the various bases for that decision were unreliable, and admit that he will have to live the rest of his life under the shadow of the possible adverse effects of that decision.

This is very important, not for the satisfaction of his critics, but for Scott himself, because now he knows he has to embark upon an early-detection regime for cancer and be careful to avoid activities that will elevate his heart rate to now-dangerous levels. And it’s also important for his fellow vaccinated, because perhaps failing this test will give them the wherewithal to pass the next one.

Because the next one is definitely coming, sooner or later.

The fundamental failure in Scott’s syllogism was the assumption that lay beneath his logic. He assumed, incorrectly, that scientistry and scientage could be trusted. This is quite common in those who fail to distinguish between the three aspects of science and don’t understand that scientistry is not only not scientody, but these days, does not necessarily have any connection to scientody at all. And given the massive twin crises of reproducibility and corruption in scientistry, the fact is that the anti-vaxx position was always the strongest position all along, even from a secular materialist perspective.

The heuristic was even more clear, and even more obvious, for the Christian. Never, ever, trust the wicked. Not offering tickets, not riding a black horse, not wearing a white coat.