Sunday, October 30, 2016

Polling trolling! - by Vox Day

Those independents sure decide fast!
Amazing how these "undecideds" suddenly make up their minds with such rapidity and decisiveness after such a long period of indecision:
Donald Trump has wiped out Hillary Clinton's comfortable lead, with the Democratic candidate dropping in the polls just 11 days before the election. Clinton now leads by just two points with 47 per cent to Trump's 45 according to the poll put together by ABC and The Washington Post. At the start of the week, she held a comfortable advantage over her opponent with 50 to his 38.
These were polls carried out BEFORE the FBI announced it was reopening emails investigation. The truth is that Hillary never had a 12-point lead over Trump or anyone else. It was nothing more than the usual attempt to manage public opinion by the mainstream media.

Of course, they have to dial back their attempts right before the election in order to retain their credibility for the next time. Hence the "late-breaking independents" and "undecideds making up their minds". As Scott Adams said over a month ago, no one is undecided about Hillary Clinton; she's been a public figure for nearly 30 years.

Zerohedge notes a key admission in the way the latest poll was conducted. "Changes in the poll’s latest four nights compared with the previous four are not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote."

Translation: the oft-heard narrative about late-deciding independents tightening the polls is a false one.

Zerohedge also observes two more relevant facts: "Ironically, these new results do not reflect the latest FBI bombshell as polling was concluded on October 27th and it still includes an 8-point sampling advantage for democrats."

It is still true that the state polls in the battleground states are the important ones. But the known unknown there is the extent to which they have been manipulated in the same way.