Friday, September 7, 2018

Vox Popoli: The existential war (A serious question - will sanity prevail or do we descend into hell on earth because of our NeoCons in DC?)

The Saker considers Paul Craig Roberts's argument that Russia is responding too meekly to imperial US aggression:

The US and Russia have been at war for several years now. Yes, this war is roughly 80% informational, 15% economic and only 5% kinetic. But this can change very rapidly. The main reasons for this war are not just the usual mix of grand power rivalries, economic and financial struggles, the desire to control raw materials or strategic geographical locations. These are all present this time too, but the deeper reason for this war is that Russia and the US represent two mutually exclusive civilizational models. Very succinctly, Russia wants a multi-polar world in which each country is free to develop as its people see fit and in which international law regulates relations between nations. The Empire stands, well, for itself, of course. Meaning that it wants a single world hegemony ruled by the AngloZionists. Furthermore, Russia stands for traditional moral and spiritual values whereas the Empire stands for greed, globalism and the destruction of all traditions and moral values. It is pretty self-evident that these two systems cannot coexist. They present existential threats to each other. Russia will either become sovereign or enslaved. The Empire will either control the planet or crumble. Tertium non datur.

The Russians fully understand that, as do the leaders of the transnational AngloZionist Empire. You think that I am exaggerating? Well, see for yourself what Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen had to say on this topic: (emphasis added)

We are witnessing historic changes across the entire threat landscape … The balance of power that has characterized the international system for decades has been corroding. America’s unipolar moment is at risk. Power vacuums are springing up across the globe and are quickly filled by hostile nation-states, terrorists and transnational criminals. They all share a common goal: They want to disrupt our way of life — and many are inciting chaos, instability and violence

Except for the totally hypocritical comment at the end about “chaos, instability and violence” (which are, by far, the biggest US exports), she is spot on. Hence the current tensions.

There is the very real possibility that this war will suddenly become 100% kinetic. The Russians also understand that, and this is why they have been preparing for WWIII for several years now. As I have already stated many times, the US armed forces are in no condition to fight a conventional war against Russia, and the recent Russian advances in military technology have pretty much rendered the US Navy and Air Force more or less useless. The US nuclear triad, however, is still fully functional and is more than sufficient to destroy Russia.

Russia has therefore also dramatically increased her strategic deterrence capabilities and in effect rendered all the US ABM efforts useless. Following the old motto si vis pacem, para bellum, Russia has now developed an entire family of new weapons systems designed to deter the US from any attack (see Andrei Martyanov’s analysis here and my own here). Putin’s plan is quite evident: he hopes that Russia will be able to convince the leaders of the United States that an attack on Russia would be suicidal. Now all Russia can do is try to do everything in her power to avoid such a conflict.

The core problem is that the God-Emperor has not yet been able to defang the aggressive imperialists of the neocon or Pax Americana variety. But the Saker is generally correct, in that Russia's best strategy is to follow China's lead, draw the game out, and wait for the imperialists to implode. Time is on the side of the secondary powers, which is why the imperialists are increasingly agitated despite Trump's obvious lack of genuine enthusiasm for foreign engagements.

UPDATE: This joint Sino-Russian military exercise is almost certainly relevant to the subject:

From September 11-15, Russia's Far East will host Vostok-2018, the largest Russian military exercise since Zapad (West)-1981. According to Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, this latest exercise will engage some 300,000 Russian troops, over 1,000 aircraft, the Pacific and Northern Fleets, the entire Airborne forces, including 30 aircraft and fixed-wing helicopters, and Mongolian and Chinese troops.

These forces will allegedly exercise in something approaching real combat conditions. Observers have naturally focused on the exercise's size and scope, and on China's participation, but there are also other dimensions.

Clearly Russia is rehearsing a large-scale war. But since Russia is not demobilising in the West against NATO and the Ukraine, Vostok-2018 will likely stress and thus test Russia's steadily developing capability for mobilising the entire panoply of reservists and multiple militaries at its disposal, along with the civil administration.

Furthermore, since all exercises invariably parallel or contain sizable nuclear exercises, and Russia's two nuclear fleets are participating, this represents another example of rehearsing conditions for nuclear operations....

Including Chinese forces means more than signalling a lack of hostile intent or suspicion about Chinese capabilities and objectives, as occurred in Vostok-2010. In conjunction with the growing identity of their foreign policies and impending deliveries of Russia's SU-35 fighter, China's presence here tends to confirm Russian analyst Vasily Kashin's remarks that this exercise points to an open declaration of a Russo-Chinese military alliance. Moscow has previously sought such an alliance and it need not be a formal document such as NATO's Washington Treaty to meet Russo-Chinese requirements for an alliance.