Authored by Gilbert Berdine via The Mises Institute,
Figure 1 illustrates the daily
mortality attributed to covid-19 in Sweden, New York, Illinois, and Texas. The figure plots the daily number of deaths per
million population. This figure illustrates the rise and fall of deaths from
covid-19 in four different policy environments. The data were
obtained from Worldometer.
Sweden:
The Control Group
Sweden
(blue dots) has served as a control group to compare policies intended to
decrease deaths from covid-19. Sweden has been unfairly criticized for its policy despite
having an outcome more favorable than places with authoritarian lockdown
policies. Sweden did not close its schools. Other than stopping gatherings of
more than fifty people, the Swedish government left decisions of closing
businesses, using masks, and social distancing to the Swedish people. The
government encouraged the use of masks and social distancing, but there were no
requirements and there were no penalties for those who declined to follow the
advice. Mortality attributed to covid-19 hit a peak value of 11.38 deaths per
day per million population on April 8, 2020. This mortality was matched on
April 15, and mortality has decreased since then. Daily mortality has been less
than one death per day per million population for the previous eighteen
days. Cases
are very low. For all practical purposes, the covid-19 epidemic is over in
Sweden. Almost certainly herd immunity has been achieved in Sweden
irrespective of any antibody test results. Testing is usually only for IgG
antibody and the herd can become immune via IgA antibody or cellular mechanisms
that are not detected by the usual testing. Whether covid-19 will reappear this
next fall or winter remains to be seen.
New
York: Locking the Barn Door Shut after the Horse Has Already Left
New
York (brown dots) has been a catastrophe. On March 20, 2020, a full lockdown was implemented. Nonessential businesses
were ordered to close. Workers in nonessential businesses were ordered to work
only from home. Pharmacies, grocery stores, liquor stores, and wine stores were
deemed to be essential and allowed to remain open. Restaurants and bars could
only deliver to homes. In addition to the lockdown, nursing homes were ordered on March 25, 2020, to
accept patients positive for the covid-19 virus in transfer from hospitals. On
May 10, this order was changed such that patients had to test negative for the
virus before being transferred to nursing homes, but the damage had already
been done. By April 7, 2020, within three weeks of the nursing home order,
a daily mortality of over fifty deaths per day per million population had been
reached. This daily mortality rate was almost five times the peak rate observed
in Sweden, where no lockdown was implemented.
The
New York policy assumed that all human interactions carry the same risk of
death by covid-19. The New York data clearly shows that interactions among young
and healthy people have a much different risk than interactions between the
young and elderly and interactions among the elderly. By facilitating the transmission
of the virus from hospitals to nursing homes, the rate of spread within the
elderly population was maximized, and any possible benefit from lockdown of the
young and healthy population was rendered moot. The general population was kept
locked down after the virus had been broadly disseminated among the elderly
population. The decline of deaths from the peak levels in New York, with its
harsh lockdown, has followed roughly the same time course as what has been
observed in Sweden without any lockdown. It is unclear whether the lockdown
interfered with herd immunity or not. This will not be known until after the economy
and schools are completely reopened for at least a month.
Illinois:
A Flattened Curve Led to More Deaths
Illinois
(gray dots) has more subtle differences from Sweden than does New York. Illinois also
implemented a harsh lockdown on March 20, 2020. There was no nursing
home order as in New York. The daily mortality rate increased more
slowly than it did in New York and Sweden, reaching a peak of over fifteen
deaths per day per million population on May 17, 2020. The daily mortality has
declined more slowly than it did in New York and Sweden, and it remains
significantly higher than the rates in those places. The most likely
explanation for the Illinois data is that the lockdown
did indeed slow the rate of transmission among the young and healthy but
also allowed a longer time for transmission from young people to elderly
people. The lockdown appears to have made more deaths from covid-19 in Illinois
than would have occurred without it. Almost certainly herd immunity has
not been achieved and will not be achieved until the schools and economy are
reopened.
Texas:
The Ox Is Slow, but the Earth Is Patient
Texas
(gold dots) had very few deaths following a less harsh lockdown than was
implemented in New York and Illinois. Nonessential businesses were closed on March 31. Outdoor activities were
permitted. Social distancing was advised but not required. Governor Abbott was
criticized for not squeezing hard enough, but predictions that Texas health
care would be overwhelmed by late April failed to materialize. Texas appeared
to be a success story, with a much lower mortality, and the state began a
phased reopening of the economy on May 1, 2020. By late
June, however, cases of covid-19 were increasing and the daily mortality
rate was creeping up. The general reopening was paused, and some relaxations of
measures were rescinded on June 26, 2020. The Texas daily mortality rate hit a
peak of over ten deaths per day per million population on July 31, 2020. The
Texas mortality peak is almost bad as the peak rate seen in Sweden, but Texas
still has a largely closed economy. Texans are debating whether schools
should be reopened or not. Sweden does not have to worry about its schools,
because it never closed its schools. Texas will eventually have to reopen its
schools and economy. It would appear that covid-19 deaths were deferred rather
than prevented by the lockdown. Although the overall covid-19 mortality is
lower in Texas (293 deaths per million population) than in Sweden (570), the
current daily mortality in Texas is much higher than in Sweden, so covid-19
mortality in Texas may catch up to Sweden over the next 30–60 days.
Furthermore, the situation in Texas will likely get worse when the schools and
economy are reopened, as they eventually must be. Like the ox and the
Earth, the
lockdown slowed the transmission of the virus among the young and healthy, but
the virus appears to be very patient and will spread when it is able to.
Conclusions
The data suggest that
lockdowns have not prevented any deaths from covid-19. At best, lockdowns have deferred
death for a short time, but they cannot possibly be continued for the long
term. It seems likely
that one will not have to even compare economic deprivation with loss of life,
as the final death toll following authoritarian lockdowns will most likely
exceed the deaths from letting people choose how to manage their own risk.
After taking the unprecedented economic depression into account, history will
likely judge these lockdowns to be the greatest policy error of this
generation. Covid-19 is not going to be defeated; we will have to learn how to
coexist with it. The only way we can learn how best to cope with covid-19 is to
let individuals manage their own risk, observe the outcomes, and learn from
mistakes. The world owes a great debt
to Sweden for setting an example that the rest of us can follow.
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/why-americans-should-adopt-sweden-model-covid-19
