Monday, October 11, 2021

Too many people are dying and it’s starting to worry the demographers

For a while now, we’ve had a mysterious jump in excess mortality in Europe. At first, nobody really paid any attention to it, with the exception of a handful of “right-wing populist anti-science conspiracy theorists”. At this point however, experts whose job it is to study trends like this are beginning to notice it too.

You can see for yourself the excess mortality for much of the EU here. Few people realize that in 2021 we have had as much excess mortality, as we did in 2020. The difference is that the age profile has shifted: Whereas most of the excess mortality was in elderly people in 2020, in 2021 it’s increasingly showing up among younger people. The excess mortality has a peculiar characteristic, in that it starts showing up later in younger age groups, with the exception of children, in whom no excess mortality is observed.

For the 29 participating countries as a whole, we have 4000 excess deaths among people aged 15-44. These deaths are hard to explain, because young people normally don’t die from COVID-19. Just 0.9% of COVID-19 deaths in the Netherlands are people under the age of fifty. The curve of excess mortality in this age category also doesn’t fit COVID-19. This is a seasonal virus that disappear in the summer, but the excess deaths among young people mainly show up during the summer.

The problem with all of this excess mortality is that it doesn’t seem to be getting better, it seems to be getting worse. It’s now getting so bad, that even my own comparatively small country of 17 million, the Netherlands, is beginning to see the signal in its statistics. The Dutch demographic agency, the CBS, has reported that September was a month with significant excess mortality.

What we notice in the most recent week, is that the mortality is most strongly elevated among the younger age groups. Last week we had 300 more deaths than we’re supposed to have. Twenty of those are COVID-19 deaths, the rest are mysterious and unexplained. You can see a graph here, dividing the mortality rate between institutionalized people (mostly elderly nursing home residents) and the rest of the population:

What you can see here is that in the general population (green), excess mortality really jumped up above normal. In fact, among the general population, we’re now beginning to see the kind of excess mortality levels that led to people locking themselves up in their homes and wearing masks just a year ago. But now nobody is worried, because they have been vaccinated and it’s not due to the virus.

We can also look at excess mortality by age category. The numbers for young age groups won’t reach statistical significance because you normally have fewer young deaths anyway, but the trend is that the increase is most prominently visible among the younger age groups.

Excess mortality, once you subtract the COVID deaths that are still occuring (despite almost every Western European nation having vaccinated 90% of its at-risk demographic) is running at about 10% above normal throughout Europe. But, the important thing to notice is that the trend is getting worse, as you could see in the graph I showed above.

The British have the habit of publishing unusually detailed mortality statistics, so let’s look at those. Here‘s the excess mortality for England:

You can see that people are dying in excess and it’s not improving. This is the general trend across the EU. Here is the Euromomo graph for deaths in all ages:

Dark blue is 2020, light blue is 2021. You need to ignore the dip in the last week, because that’s a reporting issue: Some countries are late with reporting all deaths, so the last week in this graph almost always shows a dip that’s later corrected. The trend is clear however: An accelerating increase in deaths.

So here’s the question to be asking ourselves: What’s causing the excess deaths? For this we can again turn to England. The excess deaths are found in the following categories: Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, other circulatory disorders and a small number of chronic respiratory disease cases. In other words, we’re seeing mainly cardiovascular problems. Almost all of the excess deaths can be attributed to this.

So what could be the cause? Well, the canary in the coalmine are unfortunately our own teenage boys. In the period when the COVID-19 vaccines began to be administered to teenage boys in England, deaths among teenage boys were up by 63%, compared to 16% in teenage girls.

And that gives us a clue. Teenage boys have a strong immune response to the vaccines, but they also have a low body fat percentage, much lower than girls of their age. The effect this has is that almost all of the myocarditis cases among teenagers who receive the vaccines are seen among the boys. And so, when we start giving these vaccines to teenagers and we see a sudden jump in mortality among boys, that should be reason for concern. In fact, it should have been enough to halt the whole vaccination program at once. That’s how they responded in Scandinavia, where they decided to stop giving the Moderna vaccine to teenagers.

In England, the general trend we see is that mortality is more strongly elevated among younger age categories. The most recent week saw 25% increased mortality in people aged 25-49, compared to just 6% in those above 85. The other trend we see is that when we subtract the COVID-19 deaths, which we can assume occur in the hospital or in nursing homes, almost all the excess death is at home.

So, the general pattern we see is as following: People are dying in excess. The trend is most clearly visible among younger age groups. The trend is also generally getting worse. Most of these people are dying at home, so the deaths are generally unexpected. The deaths are mainly from cardiovascular conditions.

So the question to ask ourselves is: What has changed? It appears plausible that the excess mortality seen throughout Europe is caused by the vaccination campaign against COVID-19. After all, the excess deaths that we witness, fit the kind of characteristics of the deaths we’ve seen from the vaccine: They are typically cases of heart failure or strokes, they occur suddenly in otherwise healthy people and they’re not really age-linked the way most illness is.

So what could be the cause? The honest answer is that we don’t really know for sure. It seems highly likely that dozens of teenage boys in England have died from this vaccine, because that’s where the statistical evidence is most clear. These are boys who had no pre-existing conditions and would have had no real risk from COVID-19. Or to put it very bluntly: The decision to vaccinate teenage boys in England, is a decision that killed dozens of people.

However, I wish to present to you what I consider to be the most likely issue we are currently dealing with. I fear that the excess mortality is entirely caused by the vaccine and is going to grow worse in the months ahead. Specifically, the main problem we deal with is that almost the entire spike protein displays strong similarity to proteins that our own body produces.

This makes perfect sense, if you consider that viruses will try to evolve to resemble our own proteome. It’s much harder for the immune system to attack a virus, when it has to worry about collateral damage: If every antibody you can produce against a virus is an antibody that also binds to your own proteins, you’ll have to be careful with producing antibodies. We see for example, that most people who are infected with this virus never produce measurable antibodies and those who do lose them quite rapidly.

On the other hand, we inject people with mRNA that forces our cells to produce the spike protein, we do this twice. This forces our body to produce a strong antibody response against the spike protein. The body doesn’t like to have viruses show up in its bloodstream, so when it encounters its own endothelial cells lining its blood vessels expressing an alien protein it has never before seen, it reacts very strongly.

It’s this strong reaction that has me worried. Almost every antibody your body can produce against the spike protein, is an antibody that can also react against your own proteins. We now believe for example, that the body produces an antibody that also reacts against thrombopoietin, the protein your body uses to regulate the production of platalets, which serve to stop bleeding.

This happens in severe COVID-19 cases, it also happens in a number of vaccinated people. You can think of the following analogy. Your immune system has a big arsenal with a variety of different weapons. It prefers to use precision tools for mild infections. When it finds itself overwhelmed with alien biological material, it grabs its hand grenades and its rocket launcher. Collateral damage increases, but when faced with an abundance of enemies, it has no other choice.

As humans, we didn’t like the fact that our immune system uses precision tools against this virus, because it meant that people whose precision tools had grown ineffective from age, obesity and diabetes were not well equipped to fight this virus, so we sought to trigger a very strong immune response. Effectively we taught the immune system to keep its rocket launcher and its hand grenades on standby, waiting for any sign of this virus. And then in wanders your humble thrombopoietin, eager to make some platelets, only to be blown to bits.

That’s a very colorful metaphor, to illustrate the not so colorful reality that healthy young people are dropping dead from massive strokes. We’ve had numerous reports, of women reporting menstrual changes after receiving these vaccines. If you have sudden increase in menstrual bleeding after receiving this vaccine, a very good candidate for what’s going on would be Thrombocytopenia. You should not ignore these problems, because it’s not normal and not something that will just “go away”. For men, it’s much harder to recognize the symptoms.

The problem we’re dealing with is that your body isn’t just releasing these antibodies into your blood for a few months after getting vaccinated. Rather, this is the immune response your body was taught: Focus on producing massive amounts of antibodies against the Wuhan version of the spike protein. Some of those antibodies no longer work and merely make the disease worse, because of the changes in the Delta strain. This leaves your body with a handful of other antibodies that still neutralize the virus.

But that’s the worrisome part: Whenever you encounter this virus again and have a breakthrough infection, your immune system is going to start producing large amounts of antibodies against the spike protein, some of which also happen to bind some of your own proteins. All the evidence we have right now, suggests that vaccinated people are actually more likely to get infected with this virus, than unvaccinated people. The reason for that is simple: Your body was taught a poor and ineffective immune response.

So, if you follow and agree with the logic I laid out here, then the next problem you have to take into consideration is that this winter, vaccinated people are almost certainly going to be re-exposed to this virus, leading to another spike in antibodies that cross-react with their own proteins. What I thus expect is that the rise in excess mortality among old people from the virus, will be joined by an increase in excess mortality from the antibodies people will produce against this virus.

So, what should you do, if you were unlucky enough to get vaccinated? Well, the jump in antibodies should only happen if you genuinely have a breakthrough infection. We know that vitamin D strengthens the innate immune response and reduces serum antibody levels in a number of autoimmune conditions. It seems like a smart decision to maintain high levels of vitamin D this winter.

In the long run, I expect that we will want people to get rid of this harmful adaptive immune response altogether. In the Western world, autoimmune conditions are rarely effectively treated, but in Japan, a common response is leukocytapheresis: Autoimmune conditions like inflammatory bowel disease are treated by removing a portion of your white blood cells from your blood. Harmful ones are removed along with benign ones, but if the proportion of harmful ones is lower among your newly maturing white blood cells, your condition should improve.

Psychedelics are also known for their strong anti-inflammatory effects. DMT and 5-meo-DMT in particular have been shown to strongly suppress the adaptive immune response. A number of scientists believe that psychedelics can play an important role in treating autoimmune conditions.

The autoimmune problems we’re witnessing are unlikely to be the only problem we’ll face with this vaccine. We’ve never before had a vaccine against corona viruses, because the vaccines generally made a subsequent exposure worse, due to antibody dependent enhancement. Similarly, by triggering such a strong adaptive immune response, evidence suggests that the innate immune response to many pathogens is weakened. Your body has limited immunological capacity, because it simply can’t fill your blood stream with endless numbers of white blood cells. An expansion in one type of white blood cell will tend to come at the cost of other types.

A brief way of summarizing the problem I see with this vaccine would be to point out that injecting people with mRNA and genetically manipulated chimpanzee viruses, that subsequently enter your own cells and begin producing a toxic protein that will be expressed on the surface of your cells, is the sort of unprecedented experiment that should not be administered to hundreds of millions of people simultaneously, before we have had a chance to study the long-term effects.