News: Zelinskyy no longer insists on joining NATO.
The actual news: Russia won.
Now the terms of surrender are under discussion.
I'll make a prediction: They'll be exactly the same terms Russia offered before, with another few additions, and Ukraine will take them.
- No accession to NATO, period, with sufficient protections to prevent it from being revoked or evaded. This likely means a bar on military resupply and rebuilding in Ukraine and perhaps changes to the Ukraine legal structure to forbid it. The West's word means nothing as we promised this 20+ years ago (no eastward expansion) and we lied, repeatedly.
- The two eastern provinces are confirmed as independent demilitarized states and Crimea remains Russian; this is formally adopted by the Ukraine government. Demilitarization is to be enforced, and the Nazi (literal, and yes, there are two units in Ukraine that are best-described as same) will be disbanded. Russia provides security guarantees to the two eastern provinces with the explicit understanding that any further shelling or similar act by Ukraine against them (which has intermittently been going on for eight years) will be met with immediate Russian military retaliation. In other words if Ukraine ****s with those provinces or Crimea the deal is off and the war is back on.
- Permanent revocation of permission to place or operate any bioweapon or dual-use facility in the nation. Nuland confirmed in sworn testimony yesterday we violated the UN Charter and in fact what Russia said they found there was not propaganda it was true. Said facilities shall be razed under Russian supervision and no attempt will be made to rebuild them irrespective of who sponsors or operates same.
- A permanent ban on enrichment or other nuclear activity beyond that required for civilian power production, with a specific ban on the presence of any nuclear fuel beyond 5% fissile in the nation and an absolute ban on any reactor operation that short-cycles fuel. To be enforced under IAEA surveillance.
- Each nation bears its own costs. Nobody owes anyone anything for what's happened to this point. And whatever Russia now has in its possession in terms of documentation and proof (e.g. the Biden 10% for the big guy, the kickbacks to Zelenskyy, the biolab data they already released, etc.) has no protection. You can bet it will be used when it is most-appropriate in their view too.
That's it.
We'll see whether I'm right.
Don't be even slightly surprised if the "breathless analysts" at CNN and elsewhere continue to insist Russia is losing right up until pen meets paper, which will take a bit of time.
My bet is that as of right here and now it's over.
