Monday, June 13, 2022

The Battle of Ukraine is Over - Vox Popoli

The battle of Helm’s Deep is over; the battle for Middle Earth is about to begin.”

Ukrainian troops are suffering massive losses as they are outgunned 20 to one in artillery and 40 to one in ammunition by Russian forces, according to new intelligence painting a bleak picture of the conflict on the frontline.

A report by Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials also reveals that the Ukrainians are facing huge difficulties responding to Russians shelling with their artillery restricted to a range of 25 kilometres, while the enemy can strike from 12 times that distance.

For the first time since the war began, there is now concern over desertion. The report, seen by The Independent, says the worsening situation in the Donbas, with up to a hundred soldiers being killed a day, is having “a seriously demoralising effect on Ukrainian forces as well as a very real material effect; cases of desertion are growing every week”.

At the same time, as the Russians capture territories in the east, and consolidate their control over the seized cities of Mariupol and Kherson, the bargaining position of the Ukrainian government is being weakened by acute disparity in the numbers of prisoners being held by each side.

The total number of Russian soldiers being held by Ukraine has fallen to 550 from 900 in April after a series of exchanges. Moscow meanwhile has more than 5,600 Ukrainian troops in captivity, the figure enlarged by the surrender of 2,500, including members of the Azov Battalion, in Mariupol.

Business Insider, 11 June 2022

The battle of Ukraine is over. The outcome – always predictable from the start – is certain, which is why the media is now filled with accounts of various globalist figures very cleverly suggesting that giving Russia what it already has might buy more time for the failing neoliberal world order. It won’t, because there was never any real war between Russia and Ukraine, which was why the Russians very carefully described their actions as a “special military operation”.

It was just a battle, and not a particularly big battle in historic terms at that. It was the first phase of a much larger military conflict.

The Russians know very well that the war isn’t over. Ukraine isn’t their primary enemy anymore than Austria or Poland were the primary enemies of Germany in the 20th Century. 2022 is more akin to 1939 than 1940, much less 1941.

The battle of Ukraine is over; the battle for world order is about to begin.

A battle which some observers, such as Karl Denninger, suspect is already lost:

The so-called Russian Sanctions have blown up spectacularly in the western world’s face. Russia now has a stronger currency than it did before the war we instigated began. Oil and Natural Gas, never mind things like fertilizer, are nice and expensive which suits Putin just fine. He has negotiated long term interchange with China for both and is building out the capacity to wildly increase same. Europe is fucked down the road as a result and in the meantime they got nothing for all these “sanctions.”

For that matter so are we. We’ve sequestered our inflationary deficit spending overseas via the China/US (and other nations, including India) trade deficit for the last two decades. That’s over and will never come back because none of the nations that we were doing it with have any reason to allow it ever again and they don’t need to. Not a single member of the Fed or other “economic punditry” has said one word about this although I sure as Hell have.

At the same time Russia is shipping oil to these nations who then cross-ship it back, some refined first, and there’s absolutely no way to do anything about that since we’re incapable of sanctioning either without instantly detonating our supply chains, offshored labor or both. As a result we can no longer spend in deficit without it reflecting back into inflation which means the “free ride” gave has been terminated and while this was always eventually going to end we did this to ourselves and thus the inflation you’re seeing and will continue to see was and is caused directly by our policies and our government.

The outcome isn’t absolutely settled. But the smart money is betting on the eventual victory of the Silk Road Alliance. There is a reason they call it Clown World and not Rocket Scientist World or Smart, Sensible, and Sustainable World, after all.

Quote of the Day: “You cannot appease Russia with some territory that they already have, or will take. Its not yours to give. Russia will decide exactly what happens to the Ukraine, how, and when.”