Monday, June 13, 2022

Ukraine Has LOST, And So Have We - by Karl Denninger

I predicted this, and now its happened.

Oh yeah, it hasn't been "recognized" yet, but it will be.

There are reports that Zelinsky is drafting women.  You don't do that unless you're out of fighting-age men who can actually fight.  Note that the soyman who runs away or spends his time buttfucking and/or preening can't actually fight, and you must have people who can.  When you even contemplate drafting women you've made a statement that you're out of competent fighting men.  This is similar to what the NVA did after Tet and what Iran did, but both grabbed literal boys, shoved rifles in their hands and sent them out to die.  Which they did, in size.  The war was over in that case both times, but not yet admitted.  In the former case we literally walked away from a win thanks to Cronkite and the stupidity of the American people buying his bullshit.  Thus it is here, except this time its just money, much of which has been siphoned off by defense contractors and the families of politicians -- like fuckface Biden.

Russia has employed a nasty and very effective strategy which our so-called "punditry" has entirely failed to understand.  Putin's folks lob artillery shells at the other guys; anything within 10-20 miles of their weapons gets pulverized.  With satellite and UAV targeting and fire direction these are wildly effective -- and cheap.  He can do this all day long for almost no money.  He blasts away until your force is cut in half, creating a no-go zone where if you stick your head up to try to return fire it gets blown up and then slowly does a pincer on one of the pieces, making the perimeter ever-smaller until they either surrender or are all dead.  Then he goes after the next one, and so on.

Ukraine has proved incapable of hitting Putin's field pieces as they do not have air superiority and man-portable stuff does not have the range to hit them.  Thus Putin can do this with impunity -- and is.

Yeah, Russian soldiers are dying.  But Ukraine is losing both men and material at a much higher rate, and slowly, one-by-one, all the places in the eastern part of the nation are having their Ukrainian troops removed.  In pieces.

At the same time the so-called Russian Sanctions have blown up spectacularly in the western world's face.  Russia now has a stronger currency than it did before the war we instigated began.  Oil and Natural Gas, never mind things like fertilizer, are nice and expensive which suits Putin just fine.  He has negotiated long term interchange with China for both and is building out the capacity to wildly increase same.  Europe is fucked down the road as a result and in the meantime they got nothing for all these "sanctions."

For that matter so are we.  We've sequestered our inflationary deficit spending overseas via the China/US (and other nations, including India) trade deficit for the last two decades.  That's over and will never come back because none of the nations that we were doing it with have any reason to allow it ever again and they don't need to.  Not a single member of the Fed or other "economic punditry" has said one word about this although I sure as Hell have.  At the same time Russia is shipping oil to these nations who then cross-ship it back, some refined first, and there's absolutely no way to do anything about that since we're incapable of sanctioning either without instantly detonating our supply chains, offshored labor or both As a result we can no longer spend in deficit without it reflecting back into inflation which means the "free ride" gave has been terminated and while this was always eventually going to end we did this to ourselves and thus the inflation you're seeing and will continue to see was and is caused directly by our policies and our government.

Thus the only way to stop the inflation is to stop deficit spending -- all of it -- right now.

Biden and his vunt nutjob Nuland along with many others royally fucked up.  There's nothing to be done to salvage this; you can't directly engage in armed combat with Russia without everyone glowing in the dark and everyone with 2 or more IQ points knows it.

We had better reverse course on all of our insanity with regard to energy now -- including oil, natural gas and especially coal, which has a stable long-term price structure or we're going to get fucked.  The economy here will fold back into a deep, nasty inflationary recession materially worse than the Carter Stagflation, which I remind you we caused with our stupidity related to the Arab Oil Embargo.

Further, we can no longer spend, at the federal level, anything we do not first tax from someone.  I do not give a wet crap what the excuse is from the left or right it all stops now or we will continue to get a wild inflationary spike, demand destruction will inevitably follow and so will severe civil unrest when the blackouts start along with the inability to fund food or even worse -- civil war.

If you're flying a Ukraine flag, assholes, you are the identified enemy right here at home, thank you very much for wearing an enemy uniform openly in public and you deserve to be forced to pay every damned dime of the economic cost to this nation for that act of STUPIDITY.   You ALL deserve the worst of what is to come AND IT IS COMING, like it or not.  I and many others will do our level best to make sure YOU and your entire family eat that cost -- every damn cent of it.  You are the most-stupid follower of the "next shiny object" and frankly, you are too fucking stupid to consume oxygen that could and should instead be used by something like a hog that actually produces a useful end product -- tasty bacon.